By mid-next week, a system I am following might have an impact on Kentucky. Over the Iowa/Missouri line, an upper-level low is predicted. It will traverse the Great Lakes Region as it moves northeast. Strong to severe storms might develop in Kentucky late on Tuesday night and early on Wednesday morning due to a trailing cold front. This far in advance, the time is not accurate. All I wanted to do was give everyone a brief overview of it. It appears that temperatures will be in the low to mid-60s ahead of the front. Temperatures will be in the high 40s, as we will see a 15-degree drop in temperature after the front moves through. Dewpoints will be in the 60s for western Kentucky and the mid-50s for most of the rest of Kentucky before the front passes. As everyone is aware, this will just serve to intensify the storms. Western Kentucky is currently the primary region of concern at the beginning of the period. As we approach and the models have a more accurate understanding of the circumstances, things will alter.

 

The 500 mb Height Anomaly map shows the two air masses. The storms will build in the white area between the orange and blue colors.

 

 

The EHI map indicates that there may be a chance for severe weather to develop.

 

 

For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, the Storm Prediction Center has already issued a 15% severe weather outlook for most of Kentucky. The fact that they sent out one seven days in advance might hint at something important. I will post an update in the morning. 

I must first correct something. In my post from last night, I posted about the wrong days. Tuesday and Wednesday were the correct dates.

Next week promises to bring some extreme temperature changes. Most of Kentucky could see temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s on Tuesday afternoon. It appears that temperatures in Western Kentucky will be in the mid- to upper-60s. Some low seventies might exist. In the western portion of the state, dewpoints may reach the low to mid-60s. This could be fuel for the possible strong to severe storms. 

 

 

 

Before a cold front, the conditions may be conducive to the formation of strong to severe storms.

 

 

 

 

As of right now, Tuesday night through Wednesday early is the timetable. As the cold front passes through, Wednesday's daytime highs will fall into the low to mid-40s. Western Kentucky is currently 15% at risk of strong to severe storms on Tuesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. On Wednesday, a 15% chance covers the majority of the remaining portion of Kentucky. 

 

 

A little while ago, the National Weather Service Louisville office sent me the following information:

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It now looks probable that a strong storm system will move across the middle of the country next Tuesday through Thursday, with a couple days of heavy rain, gusty winds, and severe weather chances expected as the system moves through. Confidence on exact timing and specific threats is still very low, but we will send updates over the coming days as confidence increases.

 

Hello, I wanted to share with you what I have been observing this morning. The results of the 06z GFS run are beginning to worry me a little. It was a positive tilt at the trough when I initially began monitoring the period for the potential severe weather event. As a result, it is probable that the potential storms were not as powerful as the data now suggests. The trough is now appearing to be approaching a negative phase. This indicates an intensification of the system that is expected to produce severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Indicators of more severe weather include a negative tilt trough.

The first map is 500 mb Height Anomaly. It shows trough at around 18,000 ft. You can see a negative tilt.

 

 

The following shows the winds at the same height as the trough. You can easily see the storm gaining strength as the counterclockwise rotation at the bottom of the trough indicates 

 

At 5,000 feet on the 850 mb Height, the winds close to the surface are from the southwest. Additionally, the winds on the map above begin in the west and move to the southwest. The varying winds at different heights might cause the storms to rotate, which would make them more likely to produce tornadoes. Wind damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. Also, with the Storm Prediction Center already issuing a  15% Slight Risk Area, this adds to my concern.

 

 

 

 

The most recent Storm Prediction Center maps for Wednesday and Tuesday. Extreme western Kentucky is under a level 2 Slight Risk Area on Tuesday, and the greater part of the state is under one on Wednesday.

 

 

On the front of severe weather this morning, there are both positive and negative updates. The risk for Kentucky has decreased, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Unfortunately, a level 1 Marginal Risk Area has been established for Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Along the Ohio River, this region stretches from western Kentucky into the Cincinnati/NKY region.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The level 1 Marginal Risk Area in Kentucky has been enlarged by the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday night and Wednesday am.

The threat of a tornado is intensifying. Everyone who lives in southern Indiana and near the Ohio River ought to be reviewing their emergency plan for tonight and Wednesday.