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Low level Severe Weather Threat for Friday 1/12/24

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The Storm Prediction Center has much of Kentucky under a level 1 Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms. There is potential to see 

The center of the growing low-pressure system is still expected to undergo a period of rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, though the modeling data show it takes a track to the northwest of the other guidance into the Great Lakes region through late Friday night. The exact extent of an unstable warm sector's potential expansion is still unknown; low-level warming and moistening may be enough for weak destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. If strong storms develop the main threats appear to be heavy downpours and damaging winds. 

 

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Thursday afternoon update.

 

 

Early on Friday morning, a line of storms is expected to be present across eastern Arkansas. It is anticipated that this line will become better organized as it spreads eastward/northeastward. Modeling data suggest that this line's cloud tops will be low, with limited lightning production; nevertheless, the strong upflow and intense wind fields will likely result in a strongly forced, fast-moving convective line that is capable of strong, potentially significant gusts. The general northeastward progression of this line will result in an increasing northerly movement of this line from the better low-level moisture. This evolution will likely lead to an increasingly elevated storm as the line moves into central/eastern  Kentucky and eastern Tennessee during the afternoon.

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