The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has extended a level 2 Slight Risk Area into southcentral Kentucky. This area is centered around Bowling Green.  In advance of a cold front, conditions will be in place across parts of Texas and Louisiana Saturday morning and stream northward into parts of the Southeast and TN Valley through the day, which could allow severe storms to form. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage on Saturday afternoon. Large hail will be possible with any sustained supercells. Also, increasing low-level shear will be sufficient to support a tornado threat with any supercells that can be sustained from late afternoon into the evening, especially if stronger squall lines develop. Otherwise, damaging wind and possibly embedded, brief tornadoes may become the primary threat on Saturday night as storms move eastward, with a gradual weakening trend expected due to diminishing buoyancy. 

I forgot to add these maps to the first post.

 

The severe threat has increased since this morning. I expect the level 2 Slight Risk area to be expanded to include Louisville and points east to about I-75.  The main threat window for possible severe storms that could produce tornadoes is 4–10 p.m. EST. The severe storm threat should exit eastern Kentucky early Sunday morning.

 

A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast.