Although details remain uncertain, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of KY/TN Thursday morning. Still, a moist low-level airmass will destabilize where cloud breaks occur ahead of a southeastward-moving front. Modeling data ahead of the front shows potential for organized storms given adequate instability and deep-layer shear. The more intense storms will be capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and the possibility of large hail and a tornado with any supercells. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably be greatest over the OH Valley in association with the eastward-moving upper trough.

 

 

An upper trough will shift east across much of the Midwest today and become oriented from western NY/PA to coastal NC by Friday morning. By midday, the cold front is forecast to be located from northern Lower MI into northern IL/MO. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints beneath a destabilized air mass. Some early-day showers/storms are possible in the warm sector where winds blow from a warm area into a cooler area. This activity may limit overall thunderstorm coverage later in the day, precluding higher severe probabilities. Though early day convection still may pose an isolated risk for large hail/strong gusts.

An additional band of severe thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon along the cold front. Conditions could favor will favor supercells that form at various times. Also, areas that received heavy rains could receive more today. This could mean the possibility of more area flooding. 

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 2 Slight Risk Area to cover most of Kentucky except portions of western and eastern Kentucky.

I just received this from the National Weather Service-Louisville:

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Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today and into tonight. The best time for strong to severe thunderstorms will be this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into the region from the north. The main impacts from the afternoon and evening storms will be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

A flood watch remains in effect for southern and southwestern Kentucky through the morning hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected across this part of Kentucky this morning. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible within the flood watch area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A strong and progressive upper trough over WI/Upper MI will track southeastward today, with its associated cold front sweeping across Lower MI and into the Upper OH Valley.  Thunderstorms have already developed along part of the front over northwest Lower MI.  Full sunshine ahead of the front will yield afternoon will yield conditions favorable for supercells and bowing structures, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.  An isolated tornado or two is also possible.  This activity will build southward into northern IN and spread eastward over much of OH  this evening with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail.