BGP Severe Alert Day 7/1/23

[nWo]

Severe thunderstorms are possible today from the central and southern Appalachian region westward through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Severe winds gusts, hail, and a tornado or two will all be possible. An active severe-weather day appears possible., as a mid/upper-level trough moves eastward and runs into a moist and favorably unstable environment. However, the details remain uncertain, due to the influence of rather extensive morning precipitation. In general, morning storms could pose isolated hail and wind-damage threats across parts of the OH Valley. In general, morning storms could pose an isolated hail and wind-damage threat across parts of the OH Valley. An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected during the afternoon, including the potential for organized surface-based development in areas where stronger daytime heating/destabilization can occur. Instability will be sufficient to support a hail threat with any discrete or clustered cells. A tornado or two will also be possible if any supercells can be sustained.

The Storm Prediction Center a majority of Kentucky west of I-65 under a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area. The rest of Kentucky is under a level 2 Slight Risk Area.

 

[nWo]

Update:

Severe thunderstorms with swaths of damaging winds and large hail are expected later today into early tonight across the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated severe storms will be possible farther east into the Appalachians and across west Texas. At the surface, the primary undisturbed warm sector resides from the Mid-South into southeast Missouri/southern Illinois/western Kentucky this morning, with ongoing convection reinforcing rain-cooled air just south of I-70 across Missouri/Illinois into southwest Indiana. In the wake of the morning convection, the unstable warm sector will spread northeastward some across IL/IN/KY. 

Additional thunderstorm development is expected by the mid-late afternoon across eastern Missouri near a weak surface cyclone and cold front, and storms will then spread eastward across Illinois and the Ohio Valley through tonight. Conditions will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. There will be the potential for upscale growth into a larger cluster or line, with a corresponding threat for swaths of wind damage late this afternoon through late evening. The severe threat could persist into tonight across eastern KY/southern Ohio, assuming sufficient destabilization in the wake of today's convection over the Ohio Valley.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

Update:

A large cluster of strong to severe storms is currently pushing east-northeast through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. These storms will approach southern Indiana and central Kentucky as we move into tonight, with the primary hazards being damaging winds, large hail, torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Several waves of showers and storms will be possible again tomorrow, some of which may become strong to severe. The greatest potential for severe storms will be Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, hail, and torrential rain will be the main threats.