Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are possible across the region from southern Iowa southeastward to Kentucky. A couple of tornadoes may also occur. At this time, it appears that the Missouri Valley-area storms will further organize and move eastward through the morning and into the afternoon, posing a risk for strong/damaging winds. This risk will be aided by likely-to-be fast-moving storms. Meanwhile, as this convection moves eastward, a more complex evolution of storms is expected across the Midwest/lower Ohio Valley area. Various model runs show various solutions, but overall, the likelihood of multiple rounds of southeastward-moving storm clusters exists. The result will be the potential for fairly widespread severe-caliber wind gusts, along with large hail and the potential for a couple of tornadoes, with these severe events accumulating from multiple rounds of strong/severe storms continuing throughout much if not all of the period.

The Storm Prediction Center has a portion of Kentucky that includes Madisonville, Owensboro, and Louisville in a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area. A large swath of Kentucky, mainly west of I-75 is in a level 2 Slight Risk Area. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

 

Those who live in or near the hatched areas in the following maps should be prepared before the storms move into your area for possible damaging winds and large hail. Also, there is a chance of a tornado or two. 

 

 

This is what the HRRR is showing as of this morning. Please note that these will not be the exact positions of these storms.

I will update later this morning.

 

I just received the following email from the NWS-Louisville office

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Today (6/29/2023)

Quote

 

Thu 6/29/2023 4:03 AM

Good Morning:

The latest forecasts suggest that a couple of rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the region today and tonight. Our confidence in seeing strong/severe storms is highest in areas mainly west of I-65 this morning and into this afternoon. A secondary complex of storms may develop to our northwest later this afternoon and could affect areas along and east of I-65 this evening and into the overnight hours.

The main severe weather threats will be torrential rainfall, damging winds in excess of 60 mph, and frequent lightning. In addition, isolated large hail and an isolated tornado or two are possible. The highest risk of large hail and tornadoes will be west of I-65.

The first complex of storms is now developing over central IL and this expected to drop southeastward toward SW Indiana and western KY this morning. We'll continue to keep an eye on this and additional updates will be issued later this morning.

Sincerely,

NWS Louisville, KY

 

 

 

Swaths of damaging winds of 60-80 mph, large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible today from northern Missouri into Illinois and adjacent areas of southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.

The ongoing storms from eastern Illinois into southwest Indiana have shown some tendency to cluster this morning and may persist for a few more hours while moving southeastward toward KY. Rain-cooled air from these morning storms could also provide a corridor for the upstream storms to move along this afternoon. The main threat with the morning storms will be large hail, primarily with elevated supercells, though some wind damage will also be possible. Damaging winds will be the main threat with the expected systems this afternoon, and a couple of tornadoes may also occur with embedded circulations.