BGP Severe Weather Alert Day 6/11/23

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The severe weather has increased for later today. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of southcentral/central Kentucky under a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for severe storms. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a level 2 Slight Risk Area. A section of far eastern Kentucky is under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

A short-wave trough -- embedded with seasonably strong cyclonic westerly flow on the southern fringe of a Great Lakes upper low -- is forecast to shift across the Mississippi Valley into the Mid South/Southeast today. As this occurs, a cold front -- aligned roughly along the Ohio River and Ozarks region at midday -- will shift southeastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the afternoon and evening, and to the Appalachians and central Gulf Coast states by the end of the period. As daytime heating allows moderate warm-sector destabilization, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and just ahead of the boundary by early afternoon, from the mid-Ohio Valley west to the Ozarks. Storms should rapidly organize into bands. With relatively fast easterly storm motion expected damaging wind gusts should become increasingly widespread through the afternoon within multiple bowing bands. Hail will also be possible, with stronger storms.

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From the National Weather Service Louisville Office:

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Good Morning,

Strong to severe storms will be possible across southern Indiana and central Kentucky today, with the greatest chances between 1-7 PM EDT.

The first round of showers and storms this morning will be non-severe. Storms this afternoon and early evening could become strong to severe, especially in south-central Kentucky. The main hazard with any strong to severe storm will be damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall will be a secondary hazard.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Thanks,
NWS Louisville
lmk.ops@noaa.gov

 

 

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The HRRR Radar is from 2 pm to 1 am Monday morning.

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Update:

 

A broad and appreciable severe thunderstorm potential will exist especially this afternoon into much of the evening across the region. The primary increase of anticipated severe thunderstorm development should initially occur within a moist/unstable environment near and just ahead of a southeastward-moving front through early/mid-afternoon, spanning northern Arkansas into much of Kentucky and Tennessee. A few mostly weak/transient supercells may occur, with some enhanced potential for severe hail. Storms should otherwise be more prevalently organized into bands. With relatively fast east-southeasterly storm motions expected, damaging wind gusts should become increasingly widespread through the afternoon.