Organizing clusters or lines of storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, across the Ohio Valley vicinity.  Models indicate the potential for more widespread convection, organizing into clusters or lines while overspreading much of the Ohio Valley through the day. Model guidance shows an increased potential for heavy precipitation loading and organizing convection, the environment probably will become conducive to damaging surface gusts, in addition to some risk for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat to a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for a majority of Kentucky. Wednesday will be a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day. I will post updates later today.

 

I just received notification of a conference call scheduled for this afternoon about the possible severe weather for tomorrow 4/5/23. I will post an update afternoon after the 2:45 pm EDT conference call with the NWS-Louisville office.

Here are the highlights from the conference call.

 Damaging straight line wind is the main threat, but brief spin-up tornadoes are possible. Lower confidence in hail. 

Gusty wind expected even outside of thunderstorms, gusts of 35-45 mph likely.

 Isolated-Scattered threat first part of the day. The slow moving system will allow for multiple rounds severe through the day into the evening. Main line is expected near sunset & after…  Model guidance variability limits confidence in timing storms and severe threat.

Slow front movement will allow storms to repeatedly impact some locations and enhance rainfall accumulations.  Area wide rainfall will vary between 1-2 inches with localized amounts of +2 inches of rain. 

Check back for update

Everyone should be weather aware Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Conditions along the slowing cold front, will likely be favorable for semi-discrete cells to clusters with an attendant threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. The following is from the HRRR model. Period covered is 12 pm EDT Wednesday to 4 a m EDT Thursday.

Radar

 

EHI 

 

Supercell

Significant Tornado Parameter

These are new maps. They are from the Colorado State University Machine-Learning Probabilities Prediction Webpage. From what I understand they are accurate. They show what the NWS-Louisville office was saying this afternoon. The tornado probability greatest 5-10% in western Kentucky. The second one shows how damaging wind probabilities are15-30%.

I will update everyone in the morning.

 

 

 

 

 

Isolated-Scattered showers/storms in the morning and early afternoon. The slow moving system will allow for multiple rounds of storms, some severe, for the afternoon into the evening. Main severe threat is expected during the late afternoon into the evening.

Slow front movement will allow showers and storms to repeatedly impact some locations and enhance rainfall accumulations. Area wide rainfall will vary between 1-2 inches with localized amounts of +2 inches of rain.

A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 8 a.m. – 8 p.m. EDT today Southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected. Secure any loose outdoor objects which would be susceptible to strong wind gusts. Driving conditions may become difficult for high-profile vehicles.