March 18, 20233 yr As everyone may know I usually try to look at least a week ahead for any possible weather systems that may affect us. I was looking at the Storm Prediction Center's site this morning and something peaked my curiosity. It showed on the day 6 (Thursday) outlook a 15% chance of strong to severe storms. This was for sections of Texas and Oklahoma. I know this isn't for Kentucky but when I see this my "Spidey sense" starts tingling. ? I normally then check and see if this could possible affect us in Kentucky. On Thursday, a low-latitude upper trough will be moving eastward. Low-level moisture will move in ahead of a cold front. Severe weather will breakout ahead of the cold front. While some in Kentucky could see some precipitation I don't think it will be nothing to worry about. This system will move towards Kentucky on Friday. Some could see strong to severe storms Friday afternoon into the evening. Trough Ahead of a cold front gulf moisture will be drawn into Kentucky. Dew points could reach the low to mid 60s. Temperatures Friday afternoon could rise into the mid 70s. As the cold front moves towards Kentucky showers and storms could breakout ahead of it. As of now some of these storms could be severe. The following EHI simulation is what really caused me to take a closer look at the possible weather for Friday afternoon into the evening hours. It shows a big difference from what it was showing yesterday(Friday). Now let me say this doesn't guarantee severe weather will occur just that the conditions could be favorable for them to form. I will post updates as we enter into next week.
March 21, 20233 yr Author The severe threat has come down some. At the time of this writing most of the possible strong to severe storms will be in and around the Kentucky/Tennessee border. The main threat now appears to be heavy rain with the heaviest amounts along the Ohio River. Model consensus show area averages of 2-4 inches. A broad Slight Risk Area risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Thursday night through Friday night. Totals by Saturday could average 2-4 inches. Thunderstorms could locally produce rainfall totals for 4-5+ inches of rain. This amount of rain would increase the risk for flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding. The following map is just through Thursday. I will update tomorrow.
March 22, 20233 yr Author Wednesday evening update: Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon & evening, with a chance for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence is relatively low at this point. Severe potential could be altered by track of surface low and/or impacts from heavy rain.
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