The severe weather threat has increased since my last update. Following this increase, the Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level to a 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk Area for possible severe storms. The level 2 Slight Risk Area has expanded. Therefore I'm going into a BGP Severe Weather Alert. The alert will be in effect from now until Thursday. All severe weather modes will be possible. 

 

 Showers and thunderstorms located within a strong area of warm are will be  widespread across the lower OH Valley at daybreak Thursday.  An isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms may continue into the early part of the morning, before this activity quickly moves northeast and away from the greater instability by midday.  A rejuvenation in storms is forecast over parts of Indiana/Kentucky and spreading east-northeast into OH during the afternoon into the evening. 
  It is uncertain whether a   few low-topped supercells will develop within this area but storm coverage is forecast to increase during the afternoon as storms quickly move east-northeast on the northern periphery of a warm sector.  Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, but some tornado risk may develop with either  supercells and/or line segments, given the moist boundary layer co-located with strong shear. 

The timing for this update is from 11 pm EST to 7 am EST Thursday. I will post updates whenever possible. 

 

 

Just looked at some of the latest model guidance for Thursday. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Enhanced Risk Area expands towards western Kentucky. We may see some put in a level 4 Moderate Risk Area. 

There is a conference call from the NWS-Louisville office scheduled at 2:30 pm EST this afternoon. I will post an update around 3:30 pm EST this afternoon. These calls usually focus on the specifics of a severe weather event and provide partners an opportunity to ask questions.

As I expected. The level 3 Enhanced Risk Area has been expanded to cover portions of Kentucky from around the Land between the Lakes area to about the I-75 corridor. 

 

 

 

 

The following is my notes from the 2:45 pm EST conference call this afternoon:

The threat tonight will be mainly in western and southcentral Kentucky (Bowling Green area). The tornado threat for tonight is low but not zero. The Tornado threat will increase on Thursday. Hail will be possible mainly tonight in the single cell storms that rotate. The wind damage threat will be greatest during the day on Thursday. There will be a lull in the storms Thursday morning but the severe threat will return during the afternoon. All severe weather modes will be possible. The NWS-Louisville office is most concerned about tomorrow afternoon. It was asked if this set up  is close to the one in December 2021 it was mentioned that it is close  but, we are not there yet but with the increase in instability in the last 24 hrs it won't take much to get there.

 

For Western Kentucky tonight:

 

Thunderstorms will increase across southern portions of the region after 9 PM and then spread north through the entire region into the overnight hours. There is a chance of some large hail with the initial storms over the southern half of the region. Behind the initial wave of storms, there is some potential for a few severe storms with damaging winds and even a brief tornado mainly from the Missouri Bootheel through the Purchase Area of Kentucky in the pre-dawn hours.

The convective outlook remains at an Enhanced Risk for severe weather - a level 3 out of 5. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning, but some locations may see a break in storm activity later this morning. Locations along and south of the parkways may see a continual flow of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Main window for severe weather comes later this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, where damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but hail and tornadoes are also on the table. The cold front will pass through the region from west to east, pushing all severe weather hazards out of our area by later this evening. Areas west of I-65 will be clear of severe weather much earlier than areas to the east.

Locations that see repetitive rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms today could potentially have localized flooding. Flood watch is in effect for counties across southeastern KY through late tonight. Rainfall amounts could range between 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
 

 

The Enhanced Risk Area has been scaled back and now is mainly south and west of I-64 and I-75.