Confidence is increasing on having some wintry weather impacts across the region starting Monday night and continuing into Wednesday, perhaps even into Thursday. Right now the confidence for ice accumulations (central KY) and some snow (southern Indiana ) is highest during that early Tuesday through Tuesday night period. For Wednesday and Thursday, the wintry potential will depend on if precipitation lingers over the Ohio Valley or sinks into the Tennessee Valley area.

Cold air flowing in from the north and moisture streaming in from the southwest will create the possibility of messy wintry weather and a very difficult forecast. A wintry mix will be possible from late Monday night through Wednesday night, with the potential for disruptions to travel.

At this time a major ice storm is not expected, but minor impacts will indeed be possible. These winter weather events are very tricky to pin down, and the forecast is likely to vary from one day to the next as the weather picture comes into focus.

Confidence is increasing that we will have multiple chances for wintry precipitation Monday through Thursday. Minor ice accumulations are possible, and would result in inconvenience to travelers.

A brief wintry mix is possible Monday morning over southern Indiana, and could result in a light ice glaze. Confidence in ice accumulations in this time period is low, and impacts will be limited by marginal temperatures.

Minor ice accumulations are possible again late Monday night into Tuesday. The main impact will be inconvenience to travelers. While the best chance will be in south central Kentucky, anywhere in the area is fair game.

Another wintry mix Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring minor ice accumulations to mainly southern Kentucky.

Here's what the ECMWF IFS HRES Model is showing from 6 pm EST this evening to 11 am EST Tuesday morning. A reminder that this is just the 1st round of possible winter weather this week.

 

The GFS is finally showing the possible freezing rain. 

Monday afternoon update:

A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect later this evening through midday Tuesday.     

 Expect a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

 Watch for slick spots tonight and Tuesday morning and light icing on trees and powerlines

 The Tuesday morning commute WILL be negatively impacted across the entire region.

 Another wave of wintery weather is possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Sleet and snow accumulations of up to one inch will be possible across the region.

 Best chances for precipitation to fall as all sleet and snow will be generally along and north of the WK/BG Parkways.

 Sleet and snow accumulations will result in slick roads late tonight and Tuesday morning.

 

Across southern Indiana, up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation is expected.

 Across central Kentucky, one to two tenths of ice accumulation is expected in areas south of the WK/BG Parkways. North of the WK/BG Parkways, up to one tenth of an inch of ice is expected.

 A major ice storm is NOT expected at this time, but there will be some inconvenience and slick spots for travelers.