A very strong flow aloft and a moist/conditionally unstable airmass will potentially be favorable for severe activity (I.e., the risk for damaging winds and tornadoes)from the Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas areas Monday afternoon into the lower MS Valley Monday evening/night and north-northeastward into the lower OH Valley late Monday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a 15% chance for strong to severe storms for parts of Kentucky west of I-65 for Monday evening into the early morning hours on Tuesday.

Here's what the GFS is showing. The timing is from 5 pm EST Monday to 11 pm EST Tuesday. For now the main threat period for strong to severe storms looks to be Monday evening into maybe early Tuesday morning. The threat appears to diminish as the line of showers and storms move in a easterly direction across Kentucky.

 

For now confidence is growing in possible severe weather Monday evening into the morning hours on Tuesday. Timing and the severity of the storms is still in question. I just wanted to touch-base with everyone and give any update. 

A line of showers/thunderstorms will get going around 5 pm EST in southwest Missouri down into Arkansas. As this line progresses eastward towards Kentucky, it is forecast to lengthen from northern Missouri down to southern Arkansas. South/southwesterly winds will bring warm moist air up towards Kentucky ahead of the line. Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 60s along with dew points in the low 60s ahead of the line of storms. This could be a catalyst for severe storms to fire up. The line should weaken as it travels across the state. Check back for update as we get closer to the start of the first week of the new year.

 

 

 

 

I just received an email from the National Weather Service-Louisville office. It was about the potential for strong to severe storms Monday night and Tuesday. There is still uncertainty to specifics, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to move across Kentucky ahead of a cold front early next week. 1-3 inches of rainfall are expected. This could lead to some minor localized flooding issues early and middle of next week. 

The possible strong to severe storm will be possible Monday night into Tuesday across western and central Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Damaging straight-line winds are most likely, with hail and an isolated tornado being possible. The conditional threat level will change base on storm track and timing. 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 1 Marginal Risk Area for western Kentucky for Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.