October 12, 20224 yr To be on the safe side, I'm going into Severe Weather Alert Day. It's been awhile since we've had to deal with possible severe weather. Wednesday midday report: Some clearing is noted in visible satellite imagery as of late morning across western/middle Tennessee into Kentucky, but uncertainties linger regarding the extent/degree of surface-based destabilization later today. Will maintain low severe probabilities across the region as even modest destabilization coupled with adequate low-level hodograph curvature could support a supercell or two capable of a brief tornado and/or locally damaging winds. This is what a hodograph curvature looks like. This is from around the Bowling Green area around 8 pm EDT tonight. The critical angle is 88. The closer you get to 100 the better chance of a tornado forming. Now this doesn't guarantee one will form. Just the possibility of one.
October 12, 20224 yr Author Thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. 4-8 pm EDT 8 pm to midnight EDT
October 12, 20224 yr Author There is a small section of Kentucky that my see a severe weather watch soon. Cities that may be in or around this area are New Concord, Cadiz, Hopkinsville, and Oak Grove.
October 12, 20224 yr Author Mesoscale Discussion 1866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Areas affected...Central/Eastern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122015Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado are possible across central and eastern KY for the remainder of the afternoon. Limited storm coverage is currently anticipated, meriting low watch probabilities.
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