BGP Severe Weather Alert (10/12/22)

[nWo]

To be on the safe side, I'm going into Severe Weather Alert Day. It's been awhile since we've had to deal with possible severe weather. 

 

Wednesday midday report:

Some clearing is noted in visible satellite imagery as of late morning across western/middle Tennessee into Kentucky, but uncertainties linger regarding the extent/degree of surface-based destabilization later today. Will maintain low severe probabilities across the region as even modest destabilization coupled with
adequate low-level hodograph curvature could support a supercell or two capable of a brief tornado and/or locally damaging winds. 

This is what a hodograph curvature looks like. This is from around the Bowling Green area around 8 pm EDT tonight. The critical angle is 88. The closer you get to 100 the better chance of a tornado forming. Now this doesn't guarantee one will form. Just the possibility of one. 

[nWo]

Thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

4-8 pm EDT

 

8 pm to midnight EDT

[nWo]

There is a small section of Kentucky that my see a severe weather watch soon. Cities that may be in or around this area are New Concord, Cadiz, Hopkinsville, and Oak Grove.

 

 

[nWo]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1866
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122015Z - 122215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of hail, damaging gusts, and a
   tornado are possible across central and eastern KY for the remainder
   of the afternoon. Limited storm coverage is currently anticipated,
   meriting low watch probabilities.