BGP Severe Weather Alert Day (4/13/2022)

A BGP Severe Weather Alert has been issued for today. Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely.  Several tornadoes with some strong, widespread damaging winds, some of which could be significant, and large to very large hail will likely occur. As I mentioned last night the Storm Prediction Center has expanded both the Moderate and Enhanced Areas eastward. This is a sign that the system may be moving in faster than in previous forecasts. 

An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the northern Plains today as an associated upper-level trough moves through the central Plains. This trough will take on a negative tilt during the day. A corridor of moderate instability will develop across eastern Missouri and western Illinois by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will quickly develop about that time along the cold front further west. These storms will likely obtain wind damage and large hail threat as the complex organizes into a squall line during the afternoon with all of the storms merging into a severe system by early evening.

The greatest threat is expected with discrete cells that develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon. These storms will likely become supercells and be associated with a tornado threat, large hail, and damaging winds. Conditions across southern Illinois and portions of western Kentucky are forecast to strengthen significantly during the mid-afternoon as the system moves into the region. This will create conditions very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Supercells will also be capable of large hail and wind damage. The wind damage threat will continue into early to mid-evening as the line moves across Kentucky, with the severe threat becoming more isolated further to the east.

HRRR Radar period covered is from 2 pm to 8 am EDT Thursday.

HRRR 500 mb Height shows the trough going into a negative tilt.

EHI

Supercell

Significant Tornado Parameter

Here's my thinking this morning for the areas of the state that might see a tornado.

I will be closely monitoring this situation and post updates when possible. As I mentioned last night everyone should be going over their emergency action plan this morning. Also have more than one source for weather warnings.