There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Mainly Saturday night into the day on Monday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Especially Sunday afternoon into the day on Monday. The period covered by the following maps is from 10 pm EST Saturday to 4 pm EST Monday.

 

GFS Radar

 

EHI

 

 

The following is a new map. It comes from the European model. It shows lightning strikes over 6 hours. It shows where the thunderstorms may be.

 

 

Updates as we get closer.

Just to let everyone know the site I use for weather modeling guidance has been having issues. Hopefully, they'll be corrected soon so I can post an update. 

We could see strong to severe storms both late Sunday and then again on Monday. First, for Sunday There is a slight risk of severe storms for a section of western Kentucky. Scattered storms will be possible late Sunday through Monday. A strong short wave trough will emerge into the central and southern Plains late Sunday. During the evening a weak low is forecast to form near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. This may be a focus for a more organized severe wind and tornado threat across portions of western Kentucky by Monday morning.

The following GFS 500 MB Height Anomaly map shows the trough as it moves eastward. You can see the low-mentioned form and move towards Kentucky. All of the maps cover from  1 pm EST Sunday to 7 pm EST Monday.

 

This is the GFS Precipitation Type map. 

 

For Monday, there will be another slight risk of severe thunderstorms For Kentucky mainly east of I-65. Scattered storms some severe producing damaging winds or a tornado will be possible. Low pressure is forecast to deepen as the strong shortwave trough sweeps through the Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward toward the northern Gulf coast. Dew points will range from the 50s. A strong surface convergence ( a region in the atmosphere where two prevailing flows meet and interact, resulting in distinctive weather conditions) will persist along the extensive cold front as it pushes east through Kentucky. The result is areas of strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible. 

 

Here are the outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for  Sunday and Monday.

 

 

 

 

Saturday evening update:

 

For Sunday scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon. A shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region towards the Ohio Valley. An initial cold front will stall by midday across the lower Ohio Valley. Conditions will occur that could allow the formation of Isolated severe storms Sunday afternoon into the nighttime hours. The main threat will occur overnight, especially in western Kentucky. A warm sector will move northward across the Ozarks into western Kentucky. This air mass south of the front will contain lows 60s dew points. The conditions could become favorable for a few weak supercells within this area. Tornadoes and damaging winds look to be the main threat for now. 

 

The following maps are from 10 AM EST Sunday to 8 pm EST Monday. They plainly show the line of storms that will move through Kentucky from late Sunday evening into the day on Monday. One thing to note on the EHI. Look how conditions favorable for the severe storms increase during the night Sunday.

 

 

 

This is what I received this evening from the National Weather Service-Louisville office about the possible rainfall totals.

 

 

I will be going into a Severe Weather Alert Day tomorrow morning.