BluegrassPreps.com 4th Region Final Rankings and Postseason Preview

1. Warren Central (21-3)
High Rank - 1, Low Rank - 3, Average Rank - 1

2. Greenwood (24-4)
High Rank - 1, Low Rank - 3, Average Rank - 2

3. Bowling Green (23-5)
High Rank - 1, Low Rank - 3, Average Rank - 3

4. Barren County (14-12)
High Rank - 4, Low Rank - 6, Average Rank - 4

5. Clinton County (19-8)
High Rank - 4, Low Rank - 6, Average Rank - 5

6. Franklin-Simpson (16-8)
High Rank - 5, Low Rank - 9, Average Rank - 6

7. Metcalfe County (18-10)
High Rank - 7, Low Rank - 10, Average Rank - 7

8. Todd County Central (22-7)
High Rank - 5, Low Rank - 14, Average Rank - 9

9. South Warren (14-15)
High Rank - 7, Low Rank - 12, Average Rank - 11

10. Glasgow (13-12)
High Rank - 6, Low Rank - 12, Average Rank - 8

11. Warren East (10-16)
High Rank - 9, Low Rank - 12, Average Rank - 12

12. Russellville (7-16)
High Rank - 6, Low Rank - 12, Average Rank - 10

13. Allen County-Scottsville (7-22)
High Rank - 11, Low Rank - 15, Average Rank - 13

14. Cumberland County (9-14)
High Rank - 14, Low Rank - 16, Average Rank - 16

15. Monroe County (6-21)
High Rank - 13, Low Rank - 16, Average Rank - 15

16. Russell County (4-22)
High Rank - 13, Low Rank - 16, Average Rank - 14

17. Logan County (1-26)
High Rank - 17, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 17

13th District (at Logan County)

Like each district other than the 14th, this one finished with an unbeaten #1 seed, and each seed swept the seeds below them.  Franklin-Simpson wasn't our preseason pick to win the district, but by the end of January, they had cemented themselves as the frontrunner thanks to two victories within four days over Russellville and Todd County Central, both on the road, making them 3-0 in the district at the time.  The wins were part of an eight game winning streak that also featured a home win over Barren County, a likely dark horse for the region tournament.  That streak ultimately featured a sweep over Todd County Central and Russellville, allowing Franklin-Simpson to claim the #1 seed in the district, favorite status, and a virtually guaranteed spot in the region tournament.  That's due to their matchup with Logan County, who picked up a game with Foundation Christian Academy on the last Friday of the season to avoid going winless - with a loss to Franklin-Simpson this will still be the worst season in the history of the program.  The other 13th District rep will be determined via the #2 Todd County Central/#3 Russellville matchup.  Preseason, Russellville was our pick to win the district due to the presence of 5th year transfers Anthony Woodard and Jaquis Todd, but both disappeared from the roster after just a handful of games played, and neither were present for the two wins in four days that Todd County Central claimed in early February over the Panthers, by 33 points at home and eight points on the road.  Those games aren't the only reason Todd County Central will be favored.  The Rebels are having a fantastic year, with their 22-7 record one of just four in the region to enter the postseason with 20 or more wins.  The Rebels won the All "A" Classic region tournament for the first time in 18 years, and advanced past the opening round of the tournament for the first time ever.  It's an important program building year for a program that has just one region tournament appearance in the past 19 years, and they should make it back again with a win over Russellville in the semis. 

Predictions
Semifinal - Franklin-Simpson 63 Logan County 37
Semifinal - Todd County Central 59 Russellville 49
Final - Franklin-Simpson 51 Todd County Central 48

14th District (at Warren Central)

The 14th District has produced the region champion for the last 20 tournaments, and it would be surprising if this year didn't make it 21 in a row.  The three teams at the top rotated through the top three rankings all season long, and Bowling Green, Greenwood, and Warren Central were a combined 24-0 against the rest of the region. Each team won their two home games against the other two in the trio, and a coin toss was required to determine the seeding, with Warren Central emerging as the #1, Bowling Green the #2, and Greenwood the #3.  All three are ranked in the BGP top 15 for the state, and it would be an upset of unreal proportions for the region champ to not emerge from the group.  Warren Central was the most dominant in the games between the group, winning both of their home games by 22 points, the most recent coming against Greenwood on Valentine's Day.  Bowling Green followed that with wins of 12 over Greenwood and 7 over Warren Central at home, with Greenwood's the least impressive by margin, winning by 1 and 2, the latter over Warren Central in double overtime.  But both of those wins came with star, leading scorer, and region co-POY Cade Stinnett on the bench with an ankle injury, leaving plenty of room for his ceiling to show.  Because Warren Central won't have to go through the other two to reach the region tournament, they are probably the initial region tournament favorite, just by virtue of basically having a win in hand.  That's not to slight South Warren and Warren East, who will meet in the 4/5 game to determine who meets Warren Central, but those two teams have not experienced success in a district semifinal, at least not recently.  South Warren is still seeking their first region tournament berth in school history, while Warren East hasn't been since 1997.  In the case of Warren East, it's now or never to end their 14th District futility, as they will be off to the 15th District next season.  I don't think they'll be sorry to leave the 14th behind at this point.  The two teams split their meetings this year, with each road team winning.  South Warren appears to be the stronger team of the two, with a positive point differential of 99 points on the year despite entering with a losing record, and they're 7-4 in their last 11 games coming in.  They also managed to stay within 18 points of Central when they played on the road. But the Bowling Green/Greenwood matchup will be the one everyone has their eyes on.  You won't see a better district semifinal in the state.  The two teams combined for 47 wins entering the postseason, the most ever for a 14th district semifinal that I could find. The co-players of the year for the region will face each other, with Greenwood's Cade Stinnett taking on Bowling Green's Turner Buttry, with Buttry increasingly feeling like the favorite for Mr. Basketball.  Bowling Green has won their last eight postseason meetings with Greenwood, and it has been 15 years since Greenwood has eliminated Bowling Green in a district tournament matchup.  Bowling Green has been to eight straight region finals and 13 in 14 years.  Their 2008 region final loss to Greenwood is the last time a 4th Region team other than Warren Central knocked them out, winning FORTY-TWO consecutive postseason games against the rest of the region.  They've got a mental edge here, a program that has a built-in assurance of winning.  Greenwood's advantage? A stronger veteran presence that has actually experienced the postseason on the court.  Bowling Green is a very young team outside of Buttry, and Buttry is the only one who has seen significant time in these types of postseason games.  Greenwood has eight seniors, most of whom played significant roles on last year's region runner-up.  If Greenwood starts well, and can keep the worries about Bowling Green's mystique out of their heads, then they feel like a strong pick here.  But it's tough to count the Purples out. Also interesting to note - Warren Central has only cut down the nets at home one time, in 2004 when they won the state tournament.  Greenwood hasn't won a district title since 1996, the last time someone other than Warren Central or Bowling Green won it.  And Bowling Green? They've won a district record eight district titles in a row.

Predictions
Quarterfinal - South Warren 65 Warren East 56
Semifinal - Warren Central 70 South Warren 48
Semifinal - Greenwood 76 Bowling Green 70
Final - Warren Central 62 Greenwood 58

15th District (at Glasgow)

The record isn't gaudy, but Barren County has played like the most likely dark horse for the region, the great non-14th District hope.  The Trojans have the pedigree of a team that typically finds themselves at Diddle, frequently as district champions, and the luxury of likely the best player outside the 14th District in Aden Nyekan (17.4 PPG). They open with Monroe County, who they defeated by 29 and 34 points in their regular season matchups.  Their 55-52 result at home against Glasgow was their only district result closer than 14 points.  At 6-0 in district play, they're an easy pick to win the district, despite closing their regular season schedule with just three wins in their last seven games.  Monroe County enters that game at just 6-21, and they do not have a win over a team with a winning record.  It appears extremely likely that Monroe County's last game in the 15th District will come on Tuesday night against Barren County - they return to the 16th District starting next year.  The other semifinal has a lot more intrigue.  Glasgow easily has the better record, easing over .500 with a surprise win over Franklin-Simpson during the last week of the regular season, and they closed with four straight wins.  Two of those came over their opponent on Wednesday, Allen County-Scottsville.  But those results were very competitive, with the matchup in Glasgow - where the district tournament will be - decided just 53-49.  The two teams don't meet in the district semifinals often - their matchup two years ago was the first such meeting in a decade.  It probably won't be a high-scoring game - ACS hasn't topped 56 points since early January and only five times all year (two were in the first three games of the year), and Glasgow averages just over 59 points themselves.  That type of low-scoring affair can sometimes lead to upsets, which should give ACS a puncher's chance, but in the end, you have to tilt to the home team, especially when that team has the season sweep.  As mentioned before, Glasgow was the only one who has given Barren County a game this year, losing by only three in one of the matchups, and would provide the better district final if that matchup were to occur.  Still, Barren County is likely to cut down the nets for the second time in three years, and that will be critical to their chances of advancing past the region quarterfinals - they'd have a great chance of doing so if they avoid the 14th District rep.

Predictions
Semifinal - Barren County 64 Monroe County 35
Semifinal - Glasgow 60 Allen County-Scottsville 48
Final - Barren County 61 Glasgow 48

16th District (at Clinton County)

Technically, Clinton County didn't go unbeaten in district play, losing in the All "A" region to Metcalfe County. But that result isn't reflected in official district standings, making Clinton County 6-0 in district play.  They need only a single win to reach 20 wins for the fourth straight season and eight in the last 12.  They win the same way they've won for years - they hold opponents down, giving up only 55 points per game.  They play fundamental ball, and they win, a lot.  Nick Delk should find his way onto one of the all-region teams, leading the team with 16.5 PPG.  Defensive minded teams can find sledding a bit tougher as low-scoring games can keep opponents hanging around a bit longer, and that's reflected in the wins of just 6 and 11 points against their opponent Russell County.  The two will meet in a district semifinal for the first time in 16 years.  Postseason experience heavily favors the Bulldogs.  They've been to ten straight region tournaments, while Russell County is facing the prospect of their first senior class going through the school without a region tournament appearance since moving into the 4th Region.  Plus, it's a one-man senior class.  Plus, this game is at Clinton County..... The other semifinal game has a similar narrative.  Metcalfe County enters with the much better record at 18-10, while Cumberland County is just 9-14.  the Hornets swept the season series by margins of 10 and 8 points.  They've won four consecutive over Cumberland County spanning the past two seasons, and they enter the postseason with wins in 9 of their last 11 games - only losses to Greenwood and Clinton County mar their record, and they hold an impressive win over Barren County in that stretch.  Unlike their district brethren, the Hornets would prefer to get out and score some points.  They average 67 points per game, and their 69 and 68 points scored against Cumberland County were right on brand with that.  Three Hornets average 16.6 PPG or more - Wyatt Blythe (17.4 PPG), Peyton Dial (17.1 PPG), and Jax Allen (16.6 PPG).  Cumberland County will attempt to keep pace with one of the top scorers in the state, Ty Seay.  Seay averages 28.3 PPG, and he'll have to be on for the Panthers to have a shot.  But it's tough to win with a one man show, and he did score 25 and 26 in the two losses.  He just doesn't have enough around him.  The likely district final will feature Clinton County against Metcalfe County, and if it is that matchup, it's the most likely of any from the 13th, 15th, or 16th districts to see the #1 fall, since Metcalfe County did already beat the Bulldogs this season.  The problem there is that Metcalfe County has won at Clinton County just once in the past 12 years, a 63-56 upset in December 2015.  It's tough to see Clinton County losing at home here.

Predictions
Semifinal - Clinton County 60 Russell County 50
Semifinal - Metcalfe County 64 Cumberland County 56
Final - Clinton County 68 Metcalfe County 61