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Bluegrasspreps Severe Weather Alert


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I'm issuing a Severe Weather Alert Day for today and Saturday. First for Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of western and southcentral Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area while most of the rest of Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. 

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As weak instability increases during the afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop from Tennessee into southern Kentucky. Conditions should support an isolated severe threat with the initial activity. This convection could struggle at first. However, the severe threat should gradually ramp up during the evening. Thunderstorms are expected t gradually increase in coverage during the mid to late evening from western Kentucky into western Tennessee. This threat will continue into the overnight period. Storms that develop will move east-northeastward. The threats will be a couple of tornadoes, wind damage, and isolated hail. 

 

For Saturday, as expected the Storm Prediction Center has increased the category 2 Slight Risk Area to include most of Kentucky south of I-64. Most of the rest of Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

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There is still some uncertainty about how far northward the extent of the destabilization and severe weather threat will be. A line of storms is expected to move through the region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Conditions across southern Kentucky increase the confidence for severe winds as the squall line moves through. In addition, a QLCS tornado threat will exist. These are tornadoes that spin up quickly with little or no warnings.

I will post another update around midday.

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There is also a Flash Flood Watch for most of Kentucky.

 

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHEN...From this evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water
  crossings may be flooded.

 

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Mid-morning update. The period for the best chance for more organized severe storms for tonight is from 1 am/12 central to 7 am/6 central. Any surface-based storms along or just south of the front will have the potential to develop supercell structures and to produce a few damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes. Next update will be this afternoon.

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