December 5, 20214 yr Several strong to severe storms appear possible during the overnight hours Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky west of I-75 in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. Most of the thunderstorm development is expected along a front that will pass through Kentucky late Sunday night/early Monday morning. The overall potential appears to merit a tornado threat though the threat is low. along with damaging winds.
December 5, 20214 yr Author Forgot the radar simulation. Everyone can see the storms firing up around 3-4 am EST.
December 5, 20214 yr Author Sunday morning update: The severe weather threat has increased for tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the threat level for most of Kentucky west of I-65. Most of that area is now under a category 2 Slight Risk Area for scattered strong to severe storms. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will form in a linear band tonight. This line will move in a southeasterly direction. The main concern will be damaging to locally severe gusts. While the tornado threat remains low it has increased for portions of western Kentucky west of the Land Between the Lakes area. The timing for Kentucky will be from around 10 pm EST into the early morning hours on Monday. Since this appears to be a nighttime event and we normally don't see severe storms this time of year I'm issuing a BGP Severe Weather Threat Day for today into Monday morning. I will update everyone later today. This HRRR radar is from 10 pm EST to 11 am EST Monday.
December 5, 20214 yr Author Sunday afternoon update: The overall forecast from earlier today remains valid. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase along the front after 7 pm EST. Some hail risk exists with any pre-frontal storm, especially across western Arkansas. It's not forecasted too but those in western Kentucky should be mindful of possible hail. The main severe threat will come with the more organized activity along the front. Low-level wind and considerable shear will promote a risk of bowing storm structures capable of damaging winds and/ or a quick spin-up tornado or two. With that, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the category 2 Slight Risk Area to cover almost all of Kentucky west of I-65. The category 1 Marginal Risk Area has also been expanded to just east of I-75. The following is the HRRR high definition radar. Covers the time from 9 pm EST to 9 am EST Monday morning. I will try and post another update later this evening.
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