May 8, 20215 yr The majority of Kentucky could see from isolated to scattered strong to severe storms Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has western Kentucky in category 2 Slight Risk Area. A category 1 Marginal Risk Area exists from western Kentucky to just east of I-75. The instability needed for severe storms to form will be weaker in Kentucky than other parts of the country that could see severe storms Sunday. Even so, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s that suggests some potential for surface-based storms with only modest daytime heating. Both strong to locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado appear probable.
May 9, 20215 yr Author Sunday morning update: Conditions ahead of the front forecast to cross Kentucky will be the primary catalyst for thunderstorm development. Forecast sounding suggest supercell storms are likely ahead of the front. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. There is the potential for a few tornadoes with these supercells mainly west of I-65. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of western Kentucky under a category 2 Slight Risk area. The rest of Kentucky is under a category 1 Slight Risk area except for southeast Kentucky. After the initial round of precipitation this morning through early afternoon is when the potential for severe weather exists. The HRRR shows a line of storms forming to the northeast of Kentucky around 2 pm EST. They could grow in intensity as they move into the state. It also shows those who live west of I-65 could see the strongest storms. Keep alert for possible severe weather later today.
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