The boys' 8th Region tournament kicks off tonight in New Castle, KY at Henry County High School's Roy L. Winchester Gymnasium.

This is the longest running Region tournament in the state played at the same arena.    The 8th has played its tournament at the Roy since 1963, when Oldham County won the tournament.     58 tournaments - 406 games - have been played now at the Roy, and the sentiment is strong in the 8th to keep this tournament in place where it is, at the historic old high school gym, which is the largest in the 8th Region (posted capacity is 5400) and (relatively) centrally located.   

Of course, if the Henry County folks are superstitious, they might be clamoring for a new venue....in a really eerie coincidence, the last region 8 title claimed by the host Henry County Wildcats came in 1962 on the Shelbyville HS hardwood - one year before the move to New Castle....  (cue "Twilight Zone" music)

Live video coverage is available for ALL GAMES of the 8th Region tournament on www.pegasussportsky.com.    Coverage is free for standard definition; high definition costs $7.    All games are broadcast live and also archived on the website for one year.  Pegasus Sports has been broadcasting 8th Region tournament games (on radio/cable TV/internet) since 1978, but began covering each and every game starting in 1998.

MONDAY 3/22/21    6:15 pm     #13 Oldham County (11-4) vs. Owen County (15-11)

Oldham County is the champion of the 29th District and has won 10 of the last 11 District 29 titles.   The Colonels are one of the most successful teams all-time in the 8th Region tournament and come into this year's event as the favorites, and the only ranked team in the field.    Three Colonels made the All-Region team this year:   Tyler Slone (13.9 ppg), Deaton Oak (11.0 ppg), and Sam Campbell (10.0 ppg).    The Colonels are a veteran club - all five starters are seniors, with four returning from last year's starting group, and the fifth - Grant Gibson - a sub last year who played as many minutes as the starting PG did.

Oldham has extreme length; Xander Wagner-Rose will start in the post at 6'6" and Tyler Slone is 6'5".   Three subs off the bench are as big or bigger:  Junior center Hayden Burgess comes off the bench at 6'10", Sam Powell is a 6'6" wing, and Clay Smith is a 6'4" forward.    The Colonels' size gives them an advantage on the glass and defensively.  

This year's Oldham County team shoots the ball exceptionally well, hitting 49% from the floor overall, 38% from beyond the arc, and 76% at the line (#8 in KY).  Of the nine players who have taken the most shots, five are shooting over 50% from the floor.   

Although Oldham doesn't depend a lot on the three, the Colonels are very efficient; Slone, Campbell, Oak, and Powell are all very accurate.

At the line, Tyler Slone is 36 of 38 for 94.7% on the season, Oak and Campbell both shoot over 80% (Oak is at 89.2%), and five other players shoot at or over 75%.   The worst free throw shooting percentage by a starter is Xander Wagner-Rose's 76.9%.

The Colonels came into the season with a bit of a question mark around the bench, but that seems to have been answered; Coy Zerhusen is comfortable going at least 9 deep, with Powell, Burgess, Jack Matsen, and Clay Smith seeing a lot of minutes.   Oldham has to get contributions from the bench in order to fuel its uptempo style and frequent full-court pressure.    Those four are producing about 16 points a game.

Oldham comes into the tournament as the only Region 8 team that is undefeated against region opponents, sporting a 6-0 record.

After a couple of near misses the last two years - Oldham lost in the finals in 2019 to Walton-Verona and last year in the finals to Collins - the Colonels are hungry to finish this season with a tournament championship.

Owen County returns to the dance after a four year absence.   The Rebels were just a last-second Sam Royalty shot from winning the 31st this year.   Devin Duvall has a young, but extremely talented group that is more experienced than most teams this young as many of them have been on the varsity for the last 2-3 years.    Super-sophomore guard Teagan Moore made the All-Region team and deservedly so; the 6'6" sophomore averaged 29.0 ppg and 10.6 rebounds in leading the Rebels to the #1 seed in the District 31 tournament.   Moore, who tallied an incredible 52 points in the D31 semi-final win over Gallatin County, has been particularly explosive over the past 8 games, averaging 36.3 ppg / 11.1 rebounds during that stretch, with three games of 41 or more.    

Moore has now recorded a double-double in the last five games.

Moore is surrounded by a team with a lot of youth, age-wise.   Only one senior is on the roster, Jack Spurgeon, who averages 5.7 ppg.

The rest of the team is underclassmen; Junior Isaac Wash is the only other player in double figures, averaging 11.0 ppg.  Junior Lincoln Cobb averages 6.5 ppg, and 6'8" freshman center Brax Ward averages 4.7 ppg and 4.0 rebounds.

Owen is the best free throw shooting team in the 8th Region, hitting 76.8% of their shots this year, which also ranks them #4 in the Commonwealth.    Not surprisingly, Moore is particularly deadly; the sophomore goes to the line 10 times a game, on average, and is hitting 80.3% of his shots.    (For the record, Lincoln Cobb is actually the top free throw shooter on the team; the junior is 58 of 68 on the season for a whopping 85.3%.)

Owen is an average shooting team from the perimeter as a unit (32.9%), but the Rebels have some real threats from the outside.   Isaac Wash hits 47.5% of his shots on the season (29 of 61) and Spurgeon has hit 40 on the year (33.1%).   

Prediction:   Devin Duvall and Coy Zerhusen are two of the region's best on the sidelines, and this could turn out to be quite the chess match.    Both teams have shooters, athletes, and size.  But Oldham has the experience of having been there, done that, for the last few years, and this particular group of seniors knows the pain of coming oh-so-close.  They are driven.   That motivation, and the edge in experience, should propel Oldham County to the victory.   

Schedule also plays to Oldham's advantage; the Colonels have played a top tier schedule, and have victories over #5 DeSales and then-#12 Eastern to show for it.   Owen's biggest victory to date was their 9 point win over Henry County (17-9) back on 1/19/21.   The Rebels certainly have the talent to cause Oldham trouble - but it's also certain that tonight will be one of the two toughest challenges Owen has faced all season (Owen played Simon Kenton, the #2-ranked team in the region, to close out the regular season).

For the Colonels, this is the last shot for this senior class; for Owen County, this is the announcement of what's to come for a young group of talented players.

Winner:  Oldham County - regardless of who wins, Oldham earns the right to exorcise a demon from 2019 (Walton-Verona) or 2020 (Collins) on Friday night in the semis.

 

8:15 pm  COLLINS (12-8) vs. WALTON-VERONA (15-14)

Collins brings the region's most tenacious defense to the court tonight as the Titans open defense of their region crown.

The Titans have played a difficult schedule this year, facing several ranked teams, including #1 Lexington Catholic (lost 71-40), #17 St. Xavier (lost 61-57), #13 Oldham County (lost 61-46), #5 DeSales (lost 53-48), and #12 Trinity (lost 55-49).   Despite the 0-5 mark against the elite competition, it's worth noting that Collins lost by 6 or less to three of them, and held DeSales and Trinity to 55 points or less.

The "trial by fire" undoubtedly was a big reason why the Titans were able to avoid elimination in the District 30 semi-finals against favored Spencer County, and enter the region tourney as a district champion.

The Titans, who have never missed the region tournament in their 11 years of existence, bring a brutally tough defense to the table, giving up just 49.5 ppg, one of the top 10 scoring defenses in the state.   Nine straight opponents have failed to score over 55 points, with 7 of the 9 scoring below 50 points.   Spencer County - long considered the favorite in the 30th district - managed just 42 points in falling to the Titans in the district semis.  Marion County and Anderson County didn't even make it to 40 against Chris Gaither's "D".

It's been said that playoff offense against Collins is like having your tooth pulled.  Without anesthesia.

Lost in all the hoopla about the Collins defense is the gradual development of the offense, which holds the promise of youth.   Two sophomore guards drive Collins; Butler transfer Kenyon Goodin (11.9 ppg) and Quinton Simmons (9.6 ppg).   Collins' game is about getting to the rim; junior forward Austin Thompson hits 42.5% from beyond the arc, but he has made only 17 threes on the season and nobody else on the team - among those who have shot a number of threes - is making better than 28.6%.   (Dawson Eden is hitting 45.5%, but he's only made 5 of 11).

A 42.3% shooting team, the Titans probably aren't going to overwhelm you with their offense this year, but the defense will keep you close, and the Titans are well-situated to win close ones, hitting 72% at the line, with their top 6 players all hitting over 71%.

Collins lacks size; the Titans will try to compensate with speed and positioning.   But rebounding has been a challenge for this group, which averages just 23 rebounds a game.   

Walton-Verona started the year as the hottest team around, winning 7 of their first 8 games, including the 8th Region All-A Tournament.   Mike Hester's second Bearcat squad has shooters galore, and can make shots from pretty much anywhere on the floor.     

The Bearcats enter the tournament as the 32nd district runner-up.

Four different players average in double digits for this under-sized, but energetic group whose style is remniscent of what we've seen from South Oldham over the past several years.    Junior Brant Smithers averages 19.5 ppg and leads the way, but he gets plenty of support from junior Christy Cameron (10.9 ppg), sophomore Carter Krohman (11.5 ppg), and senior Conner Davis (10.2 ppg).

Davis is one of just two seniors on the W-V roster.

Walton shoots just under 40% from beyond the arc as a team, making it nearly impossible to key on any one shooter.   Krohman (44.8%, 65 of 145) and Davis (43.0%, 58 of 135) lead the way, but Smithers has knocked down 86 threes in a COVID-shortened season at 39.8% clip.

Walton didn't shoot particularly well in their regular season loss to Collins, but the Bearcats seem to like the Henry County gym.   In an 81-80 win over Henry County on 2/26, the Cats shot 49.2% from the floor, and hit a blistering 56.5% of their threes (13 of 23).   Smithers had 28 that night.

Like Collins, the Cats have faced a pretty good schedule, facing #4 St. Henry (lost 73-29 in the state All-A), #17 St. Xavier (lost 68-55), and #2 Covington Catholic (lost 84-47).   The Bearcats defeated then - #20 Lyon County, 74-70, and were competitive in games against strong non-ranked competition, falling by 8 to Spencer County, by 2 to Mason County, by 4 to Beechwood, and by 8 to Simon Kenton.

A little note about Walton's recent tribulations....The Cats have lost 7 of 8 games, but only the losses to #11 Highlands and highly-regarded Dixie Heights have been by more than 9....the other five losses were to strong opponents by single digits.  Hmm.

Undersized, defense and rebounding have been thee biggest challenges for this Bearcat squad.    Still, W-V has found ways to compensate for a lack of size; the Bearcats managed to edge Henry County on Henry County's home court, 81-80, despite being hammered on the glass, 42-13, by the Wildcats.

Prediction:  If defense wins championships, then you have to like Collins' chances.   The Titans won the regular season meeting between these two schools, defeating W-V, 51-44, on 2/20/21 in Walton.      If you believe that recent games are a good indicator of trend, then you also have to like Collins; the Titans have won 4 of their last 7; W-V has lost 7 of their last 8.

Collins prevailed in the last game because they held Walton to just 36% shooting, including a difficult 6 of 22 night (27.3%) from beyond the arc.    The Titans also bedeviled the smaller Bearcats on the glass, winning the rebounding battle, 25-18.     

But Collins doesn't have the inherent size advantage an Oldham County or a Henry County would have inside against the Bearcats, and the Titans are not going to run away and hide behind a racehorse offense.  Walton should be able to hang close to the Titans throughout this one, which promises to be a nip-and-tuck affair.   While the Titans undoubtedly go into this game as the favorites - and we are already hearing people project a "championship-caliber" game in the semis between Oldham and Collins - the reality is that this is probably the first round game where an upset is most likely to happen.    If Walton-Verona can get good ball movement against the Collins defense and can hit open shots in the cavernous Henry County gym, the Bearcats could pull off the upset and advance.

On the other hand, if Gaither's troops are able to keep up with the ball movement and exert their usual unrelenting, python-like pressure, it could be a long night for the Cats.

The Cats would also need to be competitive on the glass, even if they cannot win the boards.     I look for Hester to throw an army of players at the glass on every missed shot, even if means giving up the opportunity for transition on the other end....

It's an interesting matchup of strength vs. strength (Walton's offense, averaging over 66 ppg vs. Collins defense, giving up just 49.5 ppg ) and weakness against weakness (Collins scores just 51 ppg; Walton surrenders over 64 ppg).

Winner:   In an opening round upset, I'm going against my long-standing belief that recent game outcomes matter a lot.   Despite the fact that Walton has dropped 7 of its last 8, I think the Bearcats have actually gained from their recent "streak", keeping very close to some very good teams.   I think either team could win this one; and I think this game will go right down to the wire.   Here's projecting Walton to outshoot Collins and advance to the semis with 60-54 victory.   This is my first-round upset special.

TUESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS FORTHCOMING LATER TONIGHT, including Henry County vs. North Oldham and Simon Kenton vs. Anderson County.

 

 

 

I should add that I'm looking for that first round upset somewhere.   It's like a 12 beating a 5 in the NCAA tourney.   It always happens.    Although the favorites do sometimes rule the roost in all four first round games, it always seems that one upstart makes it through.

I think the odds favor Collins in the Collins-WV game.   But I also think WV has the most things going for it that make it the most-likely breakthrough candidate.   If W-V can find open shots, this group can knock them down.   And - at the end of the day - he who scores one more point than the other guy, wins!   IF W-V's offense gets cranking, Collins could be very challenged to keep up.

If, if, if.  But that's the beauty of the Region tourney.