The district tournaments have completed, and with the sole exception of Greenwood's upset of Warren Central, everything went as predicted - even Metcalfe County's upset of favored Clinton County.  And with that, we're ready to get down to the region tourney, with seven games completed in four days.  For the first time in 19 years, district winners will host the opening round games, before moving to Diddle Arena at Western Kentucky University for the semifinal and final rounds.

Game 1: Russellville (9-10) at Allen County-Scottsville (15-7)
Series in 2021: None
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Russellville leads 4-0 (last meeting in 2013)

Allen County-Scottsville has had a bit of an up and down year, but enter the region tournament with a three game win streak, and took home their first 15th District tournament championship in 11 years by knocking off Barren County on the road by a 57-48 score.  That earned them the right to host a region tournament game on their home floor for the first time in 27 years.  That, along with the most favorable draw they could have received, puts them in great position to snap an eight game losing streak at the region tournament, with their last region tournament win coming in the 2005 quarterfinals. They'll look to Mason Shirley and Jax Cooper to lead the way, as they have all season. Shirley, the team's leading scorer, averaged 18 PPG in the district tournament.  Cooper did even better, averaging 21 per game.  They'll have to earn their first postseason win over Russellville since before the merger of Allen County and Scottsville High to advance, with Allen County High knocking off Russellville in 1962.  Russellville brings the only losing record among region tournament participants, with only four wins in their last 11 games.  But they've been very competitive in the majority, pushing Franklin-Simpson in the 13th district final before falling 73-62.  Jaquis Todd had 29 in that game, and they'll need a similar effort from him to have a chance here.  Allen County-Scottsville would be easily the best team they'd have beaten this season anywhere, let alone on the road.  Russellville should put up a good fight, but AC/S will take it down at home by 10+.

Game 2: Clinton County (20-4) at Bowling Green (20-2)
Series in 2021: None
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Bowling Green leads 5-0 (last meeting in 2019)

Record-wise, no other opening round matchup can compete with this one.  There are only three 20-win teams in the 4th Region, and two of them match up right out of the gate.  While Bowling Green probably would have been happy to have a lighter opening matchup, they are supremely confident, and really not phased by who they play.  That's the confidence that comes from knowing there isn't a single team outside the 14th District (or in this region tournament field) that has beaten you in postseason play since 2008.  That's the confidence from a perfect 10-0 record in region play, and the confidence from easily the deepest and most talented team in the field.  They've won eight in a row overall, are hitting 51.6% of their attempts and 40.5% from three, and haven't lost a home game to a region team in three years. They have two D1 players in Isaiah Mason (17.7 PPG) and Turner Buttry (15.7 PPG).... the advantages go on and on.  They averaged a margin of 33.5 in winning the 14th District title.  They're pretty heavy favorites.  Meanwhile, Clinton County had to see this coming when they got upset by Metcalfe County.  The team has gotten a bit of a respite in the last couple of years, but this is a team that has been known to repeatedly get poor draws at region.  This is the fifth time in the last eight seasons that they drew at 14th District representative in the opening round.  It's a unfortunate break, but the Bulldogs have had a spectacular season so far, with a run to the All A state finals and a twenty win season in a year where games could be hard to keep.  They have three players averaging in double digits, led by Nick Delk's 15.8 PPG. But it's the defense that has been their hallmark this season, as they control the pace and give up only 52.67 PPG.  They prefer to play in those low scoring contests, but naturally, they've got a problem here.  They're facing the only team giving up fewer points per game, and Bowling Green also averages almost 70 PPG.  For Clinton County to have a chance, they are going to have to be deliberate, take care of the ball in the face of the ferocious Purple press, and withstand Bowling Green's second quarter counter punch that has seen solid starts become massive deficits in the blink of an eye. It's not going to happen.  Bowling Green wins by 25.

Game 3: Greenwood (15-12) at Metcalfe County (17-9)
Series in 2021: 3/2/21 at Metcalfe County 69 Greenwood 64
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Metcalfe County leads 1-0 (2006 4th Region Semifinals)

These two teams will have only 19 days between meetings, with Metcalfe County pulling what was then considered an upset with a 69-64 victory, getting 21 points out of stud Boston Devore and 18 out of Wyatt Blythe.  The Hornets knocked down six threes in that game, and went 17-22 from the line.  Long-time followers of the region will know what happened in the one previous 4th Region tournament meeting between the two teams, when the Hornets knocked down a 30 footer at the buzzer at Diddle Arena to give them a 42-39 victory over Greenwood and send them to their last appearance in the 4th Region finals.  This one won't play out on quite as dramatic a stage.  Metcalfe County survived overtime in their district semifinal matchup against Russell County, and then picked up a 70-64 win over favored Clinton County in the 16th District finals, giving them their first district title in 20 years.  The Hornets have great balance with four players scoring in double figures.  They are 10-2 at home this year, with Clinton County the only team to knock them off.  Meanwhile Greenwood has struggled with consistency this year, never winning more than three games in a row, and taking several questionable losses.  But they put everything together in a 65-48 win over Warren Central in the district semifinals, pounding the inside at will as they hit 55.8% of their attempts in that contest.  They fell in the district finals to Bowling Green by 33, but most teams are going to suffer that fate. Cade Stinnett is one of the top scorers in the region with 20.8 PPG, but Marc Grant (12.9 PPG) and Aaron Brown (12.4 PPG) also average in double figures.  Greenwood is making just their third region tournament appearance in the last 13 years, exiting in the opening round against a 16th District opponent in each of the previous two trips.  Their last region tournament victory came in the 2008 region finals.  It's tempting to rest on their 14th District pedigree and predict they win here, but the road trip plus inconsistency will prove too much.  Metcalfe County by six.

Game 4:  Barren County (20-8) at Franklin-Simpson (14-3)
Series in 2021: 2/23/21 Franklin-Simpson 50 at Barren County 41
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Series tied 1-1 (last meeting in 2009)

It's a bit of a surprise that these two teams that have been in the same region for over 45 years are meeting in the tournament for just the third time.  They've never met beyond the quarterfinal round, and in each of their two previous meetings, the winner went on to advance to the region final (Barren County in 2004 and Franklin-Simpson in 2009).  With apologies to the Bowling Green/Clinton County game, this is the first round game to watch.  Barren County is one of the three 20 win teams in the region, while an argument can certainly be made that Franklin-Simpson would have reached that level if not for a lack of games.  As it stands, the Wildcats have the third best win percentage in the region, with their only losses coming in their season opener against Clinton County, in March against the region favorite Bowling Green, and, inexplicably, in February to Warren East.  In their first matchup, Franklin-Simpson went 8/17 from three, leaning heavily on the perimeter game for the win.  They were only 7/26 from within the arc.  Barren County seems likely to attempt to force them to beat them from outside again, as that 47% effort from three was an extreme outlier for the Wildcats, who shoot only 29% from outside.  The Wildcats are led by Andreyas Miller, who averages 22.6 PPG, complimented by Kyjuan Stutzman (13.1 PPG) and Demarcus Hogan (10.3 PPG).  Barren County's only worry in this game is that while they held Franklin to 50 in the first matchup, they managed only 41 themselves.  That's a common refrain for the Trojans, who lost their best player Aden Nyekan to injury in January.  They've been held below 50 points in five of their last 14 games, and below 55 in two others in that span.  They scored only 48 points in their 15th District final loss to Allen County-Scottsville, and they despite how good their defense is, they will have to score at least a little.  They shot below 40% from the field in their first matchup, and were even worse from three, going 3/14.  Even their free throw effort in that game was poor, going just 4/10 from the line.  Leading scorer Mason Griggs had 14 in that game and averages 15 per game for the year.  Warren Cunningham is considered by many to be the best coach in the region, and always has his team prepared.  The Trojans are seeking their first win in the region tournament since they knocked off Warren Central in the 2016 4th Region semifinals - Franklin-Simpson is after their first win since the 2017 4th Region quarters against Russell County.  Both teams are positioned well for a run thanks to the draw, but Barren County should flip the script from the first game, edging Franklin-Simpson by six.

Quick predictions for later rounds:
Semifinal 1: Bowling Green over Allen County-Scottsville by 19
Semifinal 2: Barren County over Metcalfe County by 10
Finals: Bowling Green over Barren County by 28

One thing is for certain - if Bowling Green doesn't win their first region title since 2017 and sixth of the past ten years, it will be because they suffered the largest upset in region play since Russell County beat region favorite Warren Central in 2009.  Bowling Green hasn't failed to make the region finals of a region tournament they played in since 2005, and they haven't lost a region final to a team that wasn't in the 14th District since Russellville defeated them in the final in 1998 - they're 3-0 in finals against the other districts since.  

 

3-1 in the quarterfinal round as Greenwood won their first region tournament game in 13 years to reverse their previous result against Metcalfe County.  Both predicted finalists are still alive as Bowling Green won by 16 and Barren County pulled their second Houdini act of the postseason, coming back to take Franklin-Simpson down by three in overtime.  The games now shift to Diddle Arena.  Bowling Green and Allen County-Scottsville meet in the region tournament for the third time ever (second straight year though), but first beyond the region quarterfinal round.  The Purples won by 32 points last season, and their regular season meeting in Scottsville was an 11 point result - the closest fourth region game played this year for Bowling Green.  It's the fourth meeting in the 4th Region tournament for Barren County and Greenwood, all in the region semifinal round, and first in 13 years.  Both times that Greenwood won the matchup (in 1995 and that last meeting in 2008), they went on to win the region tournament - a bit of a good luck charm for the Gators.  But the one that Barren County won is perhaps the most (in)famous of the three prior matchups, as Barren County took down #1 ranked Greenwood and Kentucky Mr. Basketball Daymeon Fishback in a 69-66 overtime victory in the 1996 4th Region tournament.  The Trojans would go on to lose in the region finals that year to Allen County-Scottsville.

There isn't a single combination of teams in this final four that wouldn't be a repeat of a previously played region final.  Bowling Green and Barren County met in the 2016 region finals (won by Bowling Green, the last truly good opportunity for a team outside the 14th District to win), Bowling Green and Greenwood met in the 2008 region finals (won by Greenwood, the last 4th Region title won by a team other than Bowling Green or Warren Central), Allen County-Scottsville and Greenwood met in the 1995 region finals (won by Greenwood, the last of ten straight region titles by the 14th District), and Allen County-Scottsville and Barren County met in the aforementioned 1996 region finals (won by Allen County-Scottsville, their last of two region titles, the start of a span of 4 titles in five years by non-14th District teams, the break in ten region titles by the 14th District before the span and the current streak of 19 straight).

Bowling Green moves on to their region record 8th consecutive region final with a 53-38 win over Allen County-Scottsville.  The game was much closer than that, but Isaiah Mason hoisted the team on his back in the fourth quarter, and the Purples closed the game on a 13-3 run.