It appears instead of snow I've been talking about for a couple a weeks we could see showers and storms on New Year's Day. Some of which could be strong to severe. There will be a low pressure system that will move towards Kentucky from Texas. It is forecast to past just to the west of Kentucky. This will make this a rain instead of snow event. This low pressure system will bring warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points could reach up to the 60s in portions of Kentucky. 

 

 

As the low approaches Kentucky showers and storms will break out some of which could be strong to severe. The main threat looks to be Friday afternoon. 

 

Portions of western and south central Kentucky could see some thunderstorms Friday morning. Central and eastern Kentucky could see the strong storms Friday afternoon. The stronger storms could be severe and produce damaging winds and a low end tornado threat. I will be watching this situation and post updates as we get closer. 

Tuesday evening update:

 

After the morning showers move through a line of showers/storms is forecast to form Friday afternoon and move across the state into the evening hours. Some could see some unseasonably warm temps before the second batch of showers moves through. The temps could reach the mid 60s. Also the dew points as much as 60°s. This could add fuel for the storms to form.

This is what the name is showing.

 

GFS

 

 

Here is what both the models are showing. The thin line of showers starts in western Kentucky around 2 pm EST then move across Kentucky until they weaken during the early evening hours.

 

 

 

I will update everyone tomorrow.

 

There is a category 1 Marginal Threat Area issued by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of western and southcentral Kentucky for Friday. This is almost exactly the area I've been talking about.

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing along and just ahead of a cold front Friday morning. This precipitation will move eastward across Kentucky into early afternoon. The greatest threat will likely be late morning and early afternoon. A marginal wind damage/tornado threat may develop with the stronger rotating cells.