Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight. A few of these may become severe later this afternoon and evening, particularly across portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning will be the primary hazards. A secondary lower risk exists for damaging winds. So the Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 2 Slight Risk Area for portions of western Kentucky. There is a category 1 Marginal Risk Area the extends further east into Kentucky from Owensboro to about I-65 near Bowling Green . I'll post an update a little later this morning.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has moved the Slight Risk Area a little farther eastward into Kentucky. The area is now south and west of a line from around Marion down to around Franklin Kentucky. The Marginal Risk Area has also be moved further east. From Owensboro to near Glasgow.

 

 

Multiple clusters and lines of storms are affecting eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northwest Arkansas this morning. There have been numerous reports of large/very large hail and damaging winds with this activity. Model guidance suggests that the primary corridor of severe threat through the afternoon will focus across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, then extend southeastward along a weak baroclinic zone ( Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems) into parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. The risk of hail will persist, but continued destabilization should also increase the risk of damaging winds or even an isolated tornado or two.

This is the radar from 4-9 pm CDT. I'm seeing a possible bow echo for portions of western Kentucky similar to yesterday's around the 7-8 pm CDT time period. I'll be watching throughout the afternoon.