The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for severe storms on Sunday. Northern/northeastern Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

Destabilization in the vicinity of the primary surface low into the Ohio Valley is uncertain, given the potential for disruptive convection(severe storms) further south. However favorable conditions will support some severe thunderstorm threat in the region as well, with a conditional risk of all hazards given sufficient destabilization.

 

 

Update later today.

I forgot to mention that this may also be a overnight event. Timing is still uncertain though.

The map below shows the portions of Kentucky that I'm growing concerned about. The date I've been watching the data for most of the day and I'm not liking what it is showing. I sure hope the data starts showing a drop in the conditions. If not we could be in for a long night Sunday into early morning hours on Monday. Now let me say we are a couple days away and things more than likely will change. Check back for updates.

 

 

As of this morning, the severe threat is increasing for Kentucky. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely Sunday evening into the nighttime hours. tornadoes, potentially widespread damaging winds, and large hail are all possible. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the potential for destabilization due to the widespread convection to the south of the area. However, rapidly strengthening wind fields in advance of the deepening cyclone (a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong low-pressure center) will support the potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado risk Sunday evening should even modest destabilization occur as strong convection attempt to move in the southwest in tandem with the deepening cyclone.

 

 

This is the NAM EHI from 11 pm EDT Sunday night to 11 am EDT Monday morning.

 

 

I am watching this very closely and will update later this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the size of the Enhanced Risk Area for portions of Kentucky. It now covers all of western Kentucky and eastward towards Somerset. There is still some uncertainty about the potential for destabilization however rapidly strengthening wind fields in advance of the deepening cyclone will support the potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado risk Sunday evening should even modest destabilization occurs. Everyone can see the Enhanced Risk Area closely matches the one I posted Friday evening. That was the area I'm most concerned about. I will post a detailed update later this evening.

 

 

The potential for severe storms late Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday is still there. If the model data continues as is it may even be increasing. The potential for all severe hazards will be with us. A shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains on Sunday morning is forecast to move quickly eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley by early evening, and then accelerate northeastward toward the Ohio Valley late Sunday night into Monday morning. A broad surface will move eastward to the mid-Mississippi Valley by 8 pm EDT Sunday night and then move northeastward and rapidly intensify into an intense cyclone of the lower Great Lakes by 8 am EDT Monday morning. A warm front will surge northward ahead of the low across the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast.

 

The EHI shows the condition for severe weather moves into Kentucky around the 11 pm EDT time period. All of the following simulations cover the time from 11 pm EDT Sunday to 8 am EDT Monday morning.

 

The EHI

 

 

This one shows the possibility of supercell development

 

 

The possibility of significant tornado development

 

 

The radar shows the showers and storms that will move in conjunction with the severe weather potential conditions. Don't let the possible showers early in the evening put you at ease. The severe weather is not forecast to enter into Kentucky until around 11 pm EDT.

 

 

I will update everyone Sunday morning.