Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday evening and into the overnight. Large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are the primary hazard. The magnitude and coverage of the severe threat, and also the northeastern extent of the threat, will be highly dependent on the amount of moistening and destabilization that can occur ahead of the front by Wednesday evening, and considerable spread remains regarding these details in the model guidance. A corridor of higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed in future outlooks once there is greater confidence in the magnitude of destabilization across this region.

 

The primary severe threat is expected to develop near or after 8 pm EDT along the southeastward moving cold front as it advances into portions of the Ohio Valley.

 

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of Kentucky on Wednesday evening and overnight. A somewhat broad area of Slight Risk equivalent severe weather probabilities will exist over much of Kentucky. This is due to deference in the model depictions of the different aspects needed for formation of severe weather. Thunderstorms are expected to initialize along a front during the afternoon and then push southeastward throughout the evening. The initial storms will be cellular,(individual) with some supporting the threat for large hail. The storms should make the transition linear storms (a line of storms). If this is does happen the severe threat will transition from hail to damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat will be small.