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Category 2 Slight Risk Area Tuesday 4/7/2020


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Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Forecast sounding show conditions would favor supercells and organized bowing segments. Large Hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the more organized/intense storms. Also, a tornado or two can't be completely ruled out. The category 2 Slight Risk Area is from around the I-64 corridor northward. South of that point the rest of Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

KY_swody3.png

 

Update later today.

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I just wanted to let everyone know what I've been watching today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible during the afternoon on Tuesday into the overnight hours. While it is early yet the soundings are indicating supercell development along with large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two can not be ruled out. The Cincinnati/NKY area could see the second round of severe storms early Wednesday morning. The tornado threat appears to be higher Wednesday morning. Hail and damaging winds will also be possible.

 

As of today, the timing for these storms looks to be Tuesday afternoon with a second-round early on Wednesday. The following maps are from 2 pm EDT Wednesday to 8 am EDT Wednesday morning. Also, for now, it appears most of the severe weather will be north of I-64.

 

EHI

 

floop-gfs-2020040518.ehi03.us_ov.gif

 

Radar

 

floop-gfs-2020040518.refcmp.us_ov.gif

 

I will be updating everyone in the morning.

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The severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon into the evening is still with us. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary severe risks, although a tornado is possible with the more organized supercells or bowing segments. The severe risk will likely move from the west-northwest to east-southeast during the night.

 

KY_swody2.png

 

Wednesday

 

The severe threat will shift south of I-64 on Wednesday. There is a category 2 Slight Risk Area for portions of Kentucky. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into the overnight. For now, damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

 

KY_swody3.png

 

Update later today.

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As of this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has widened the Slight Risk Area to include almost all of Kentucky except portions west of the Land Between the Lakes area. Those who live there are in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. I will post another update this evening.

 

KY_swody2.png

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Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into the nighttime hours. Morning convection and possibly some accompanying severe potential should be ongoing over the Ohio Valley vicinity and will shift southeastward through the morning. The condition should hinder new convective development through the day ahead of a weak/advancing front/wind shift.

 

At this time degree and timing of the new storm development over the Ohio Valley remains quite uncertain but current thinking is that scattered to isolated storms should develop along the weak boundary from lower Michigan southwestward to Missouri with the first storms possibly initiating around sunset. The storms would then spread east southeastward with time across the Ohio Valley states, gradually increasing in coverage with time. Along with the potential for large hail damaging winds will also be possible particularly if storms can grow upscale locally into line segments/clusters. A tornado or two can't be completely ruled out.

 

KY_swody2.png

 

Here are the GFS simulations for tomorrow from 2 pm EDT Tuesday to 2 pm EDT Wednesday.

 

Radar

 

floop-gfs-2020040618.refcmp.us_ov.gif

 

This is the EHI for the same time period. Please note that around 2 pm EDT on Wednesday that the conditions once again are starting to become favorable for severe storms.

 

floop-gfs-2020040618.ehi03.us_ov.gif

 

So we look to be going through this again later in the day on Wednesday. Check back for updates in the morning.

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The Slight Risk Area has been scaled back this morning. It is now mainly north of I-64 except for a small portion of eastern Kentucky north of Prestonsburg. The best timing for the severe weather looks to be between 11 pm EDT tonight to 6 am EDT Wednesday. The threats remain damaging winds, hail and brief isolated tornadoes.

 

KY_swody1.png

 

I will be monitoring the situation throughout today and post new information when it comes available.

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Severe thunderstorms are possible later tonight for portions of Kentucky. The best chance to see theses storms will be north of the I-64 corridor. An approaching cold front is still expected to result in storm initiation this afternoon. The resulting line of storms will move towards the southeast. Giving the anticipated conditions damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat.

 

KY_swody1.png

 

At this time, the isolated to scattered severe storms are predicted to enter into northern Kentucky around the 3 am EDT time slot. They should weaken in intensity and be out of the Slight Risk Area around 8 am EDT.

 

floop-hrrr-2020040718.refcmp.us_ov.gif

 

I'm still monitoring the situation and will update when information warrants it.

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