An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm risk exists for portions of Kentucky west of I-65 late Thursday evening into Friday morning. A surface cold front will sweep east southeastward across the area, although there is some uncertainty regarding the strength and placement of a surface low associated with a shortwave trough convective potential will be focused along and ahead of the cold front with a broad area of at least isolated strong to severe storm potential event.

 

Depending on the evolution of the upper trough and related surface low, a greater severe probability may need to be extended northward and eastward. Check back for an update later today.

 

 

The time for the following maps is from 8 pm EDT Thursday to 2 pm EDT Friday.

 

 

EHI

 

At the writing of this update, it appears that the severe threat has increased some since this morning. Scattered showers and storms will appear during the day on Thursday especially in the Cincinnati/NKY area. These will move out of Kentucky during the early evening and then we should see scattered rain and showers. A line of storms should start to form and traverse across Kentucky from west to east after midnight. For now, the threats look to be damaging winds, hail and a low-end tornado threat.

 

The following simulated GFS radar is from 2 pm EDT Thursday afternoon to 2 PM EDT Friday afternoon.

 

 

This is the EHI showing the conditions for strong to severe storms during the same period.

 

 

Check back in the morning for updates.

There is conditional severe potential across the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Although the convective(circular motion that happens when warmer air or liquid rises, while the cooler air or liquid drops down) precipitation signal from most model guidance is weak. Across the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, at least some severe potential is evident, mainly from Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threats with any storm that can develop along and ahead of the cold front. A tornado also cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level shear expected. Weak instability is the main limiting factor that is preventing higher severe probabilities across the region for now but the situation is being monitored and will be reevaluated in later outlooks.

 

 

GFS Radar from 2 pm EDT Thursday to 2 pm EDT Friday

 

 

EHI shows conditions that could be favorable to formation of strong to severe storms for the same time period.

 

 

I will update everyone later today.

The severe threat for Thursday has increased. Portions of Kentucky are now in a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area north and west of a line from Mayfield to between Owensboro and Louisville. A small section of Kentucky from around Ft. Campbell to around north of Maysville is in a Category 2 Slight Risk area. Then there is a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area from just south of Bowling Green to around Maysville.

 

 

 

 

Severe thunderstorms are expected in the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. Damaging gusts, isolated large hail, and tornadoes are possible mainly during the afternoon into the evening hours.

 

Cloud cover across the region will inhibit destabilization somewhat but conditions will become favorable for severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Supercells will initially be possible ahead of the cold front but may tend to grow upscale into bowing segments with time. Nevertheless, conditions will be favorable for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across portions of the lower Ohio Valley.

 

The following radar is from the NAM 3Km model. It is from 2 pm Thursday to 11 am Friday morning. Please note that another thin line of storms looks to form early Friday morning and move to the southeast towards Kentucky.

 

 

I will be updating it in the morning. If the trend continues I will be issuing a BGP Severe Weather Alert day then.