Some could see isolated strong to severe storms on Thursday. These possible storms appear to be conditional due to discrepancies within the various model output concerning different aspects of destabilization. However, there appears more certainty concerning weak to modest boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the front across the lower Ohio Valley Region. The environment may become conducive to at least scattered vigorous thunderstorm development, including a few supercells before the prefrontal instability weakens Thursday evening.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk from Marginal to Slight for much of Kentucky Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. This is mainly west of I-75. East of that point is in a Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms.

 

 

Discrete storms may initiate near the Missouri/Arkansas border Thursday afternoon before spreading eastward and intensifying in the presence of a strong deep-layer and low-level shear. This may include a few supercells which could pose a risk for tornadoes in addition to severe hail and locally damaging winds gusts. Eventually, conditions could become favorable to support an upscale growing and organizing convective system across western into central Kentucky. This probably will be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts, and continuing risk for a couple of tornadoes, before activity weakens during the late evening or overnight.

 

 

This is the simulated GFS radar for Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. It is from 2 pm EDT Thursday to 7 am EDT Friday morning.

 

 

I will update it later today.

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by nWo

I just received some information from the NWS-Louisville office. Overall confidence in the chance for severe storms is at the low medium level. Which means there is a fair chance for these storms to develop. All severe weather threats look to be possible on Thursday. Damaging winds, Tornadoes, large hail, lightning and heavy rain in the stronger storms.

 

At this moment the timing looks as follows. Southern Kentucky 4 pm to midnight EDT. Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky and southern Indiana 8 pm-2 am EDT Friday. The timing is widespread because there is still some uncertainty in how the storms will develop tomorrow.

 

I will post an update later today. I will also try to post any new information as quickly as I can when it becomes available.

I will be posting an update in about an hour or so. Just waiting on the GFS model data to be released. It appears for now that the severe threat is increasing.

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the area of the Slight Risk Area to include most of Kentucky. Except for portions of northern and eastern Kentucky.

 

 

The main surface low associated with this system will track eastward across Ontario Canada with a surface cold front extending south/southwest from the Upper Midwest to western portions of the southern Plains during the morning. A warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas/ western Tennessee early Thursday, lifting northward toward the Ohio River during the day. Strong warm advection(the transfer of heat or matter by the flow of a fluid, especially horizontally in the atmosphere or the sea.) ahead of the east/southeastward progressing cold front will allow low to mid-60s F dewpoints to overspread the southcentral U.S. from eastern OK/TX into parts of KY/TN.

 

Surface heating likely will be limited by cloud cover and areas of ongoing showers will like result in pockets of stronger capping, However, a southwesterly low-level jet will develop by late afternoon/early evening just ahead of a cold front near the MO/AR border southwestward into southeast Ok, as well as eastward near the warm front across KY/TN. Semi discrete cells in the warm sector are possible initially, but clusters are expected to grow upscale into the evening. All severe hazards appear possible, with hail more likely earlier in the storm evolution.

 

I'm really concerned about portions of western Kentucky. The modeling data is showing a chance for some strong long-track tornadoes. I hope that threat diminishes by tomorrow. The NAM is really showing this. The 18z run is showing the chance for particular dangerous tornadoes for portions of western Kentucky. Let me say that it is just what it is showing now. Just in case if I lived in that portion of Kentucky I would be going over my emergency action plan now. Also, have several ways to get your weather information in case a severe weather event does happen. This severe threat looks to move across Kentucky during the evening into the early morning hours.

 

This is what the GFS is showing.

EHI

 

 

Supercell Composite

 

 

 

The NAM is coming in showing a more robust chance for severe weather especially in western Kentucky.

 

EHI

 

 

Supercell Composite

 

 

Significant Tornado Perimeter

 

 

I am watching this situation closely and will update whenever possible. If the modeling data hold to what ii has been showing I will be issuing a Severe Weather Alert Day in the morning.