There is a category 1 Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms across portions of western Kentucky Monday afternoon in the evening hours. A strong upper low is expected to gradually shift southeastward throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low near the central MO/IL border southwestward to another low over central Oklahoma on Monday morning. The front will slowly sag southeastward. Conditions could become favorable for scattered strong to severe storms that could produce damaging winds and hail but there will likely be enough low-level shear for a low probability threat of tornadoes.

 

I will update tomorrow.

 

 

GFS EHI

 

The Storm Prediction Center has most of western Kentucky in a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area of severe storms Monday and Monday night. At this time, the best potential for a few strong storms approaching severe limits will be mainly after midnight Monday night, along the southern west Kentucky border counties near the Kentucky and Tennessee border. The primary hazard would be hail. However and isolated strong wind gust, as well as locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, will be possible.