November 6, 20196 yr I'm going to break down what each team's chances of making the playoffs are and what they need to have happen to get to the playoffs. The first college football rankings gave us the following top 10... 1. Ohio State 2. LSU 3. Alabama 4. Penn State 5. Clemson 6. Georgia 7. Oregon 8. Utah 9. Oklahoma 10.Florida 1. Ohio State 8-0 with a 67% chance of making the playoffs as of today as determined by fivethirtyeight. Maryland, at Rutgers, Penn State and at Michigan is the remaining schedule plus a Big 10 Title game possible (Minnesota as of today) For the Buckeyes it is pretty simple, win and you are in and probably a #1 or #2 seed. A loss to Penn St would be hard to overcome as it would also cost them a chance to play in the B1G title game, due to Penn State having a cakewalk the rest of the year. Ohio State could still get in with a competitive loss to Michigan if that was their only loss to their arch-rival on the road, as long as they convincingly won the B1G title game. 2. LSU 8-0 with a 38% chance of making the playoffs. At Alabama, at Mississippi, Arkansas and Texas A&M remain on the schedule with the elephant in the room literally being an elephant, Alabama. Like OSU, win and you are in LSU. With a win over Alabama LSU would have 4 top 12 wins on the season with a chance for a 5th in the SEC title game against a likely UGA team with one loss. If LSU wins out it would seem likely that they would pass OSU for the #1 seed. If LSU were to lose to Alabama in a close game, there would be a very narrow path for them to make the playoffs but it would be possible. They would need Alabama to win out, Ohio State to destroy Penn State and eliminate them and the PAC schools to continue to be unimpressive. It would be hard to argue that with a close loss at Alabama that LSU wasn't the best 1 loss team in America based on their resume'. 3. Alabama 8-0 with a 50% chance to make the playoffs. LSU, at Miss State, Western Carolina and at Auburn remain on the Alabama schedule. The LSU game will probably make or break their season and that all may ride on Tua's gimpy ankles. If Alabama wins out, like the others they are in...so their destiny is in their own hands. If Alabama loses without Tua or him only playing a small amount, the committee may look at that and consider them...but I think with a loss to LSU they are done. They could possibly survive a loss to Auburn if they came back and were impressive in the SEC title game and destroyed UGA. Outside of that if Alabama were to lose to LSU they would need so much help that it would nearly be considered a miracle if it all fell into place for them, there would be a very narrow path that I'll discuss in the coming weeks if the parts were to fall into place. 4. Penn State 8-0 with a 24% chance to make the playoffs. At Minnesota, Indiana, at Ohio State and Rutgers round out the schedule for the Nittany Lions. If they win out and they are in, but that's a big IF sitting in Columbus. A loss to anyone other than OSU will eliminate from the discussion, a loss to OSU, if it is competitive, would put them near the top of the pile of really good teams with one loss. If they were to beat the Bucks and lose the B1G title game I could see them missing out on the playoffs as well. 5. Clemson 9-0 with an 82% chance to make the playoffs. At NC State, Wake Forrest and at South Carolina remains on the cakewalk schedule that they have had. That said Clemson is in the best position to make the playoffs due to the weakness of their opponents ahead of them. A loss at this point would be catastrophic to their playoff chances and it would be hard to see a path forward for them. 6. Georgia 7-1 with a 24% chance to make the playoffs. Missouri, at Auburn, Texas A&M and Georgia Tech remain for the Bulldogs. OK, first of all, how did they get here? I'd argue that there are at least two one-loss teams that are not only better at this point but much better. If UGA were to win out and win the SEC title game (LSU/Bama), they would deserve to get in the playoffs...but I just can't see that happening. I think it's more likely they pick up another loss before the season is over. 7. Oregon 8-1 with a 35% chance of making the playoffs. Games with Arizona, at Arizona State and Oregon State remain plus a likely PAC title game with Utah. Oregon would have a better claim on a higher ranking if not for 3 or 4 struggle-wins in the middle of the season. If they win out, it will come down to are they better with one loss than both of the losers of (Bama/LSU) and (OSU/PSU), do they have a better resume than those teams. 8. Utah 7-1 with a 23% chance of making the playoffs. Utah has UCLA, at Arizona and Colorado remaining, plus a likely game against Oregon in the PAC title game. If they win out, it will come down to are they better with one loss than both of the losers of (Bama/LSU) and (OSU/PSU), do they have a better resume than those teams. 9. Oklahoma 7-1 28% chance of making the playoffs. Iowa State, at Baylor, TCU and at Oklahoma State plus a possible Big 12 title game (Baylor rematch) remains. I feel Oklahoma can play themselves to near the top of the one-loss team pile with dominant wins over their remaining schedule. They, of course, need to win out and hope the teams above them look less than impressive. 10. Florida 7-2 no chance 11. Auburn 7-2 no chance 12. Baylor 8-0 13% chance of making the playoffs. At TCU, Oklahoma, at Texas, and Kansas remain. If they were to win out and win the Big 12 title game by beating Oklahoma for a second time it would be hard not to give them strong consideration. I personally would bump them over the PAC champion...they'd have to be the #4 seed behind the B1G, ACC, and SEC title winners. No other teams have over a 13% chance of making it to the playoffs.
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