The Storm Prediction Center has Kentucky in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for possible scattered strong to severe storms on Monday. The potential exists for damaging winds gust and perhaps a tornado or two.

 

 

The GFS Ohio Valley radar is from 2 pm to 2 am EDT. The potential is there for some to receive 2+ inches of precipitation accumulation by the time the rain moves out of Kentucky.

 

 

 

I will update later today.

No real change from this mornings outlook. The models are still apart on the timing of the possible thunderstorms. I should get a good read in the morning.

The chance for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday has increased some. Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the lower Ohio Valley. These possible storms could have the risks of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. The area that has the best chance to see severe storms that could produce a possible tornado is western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has that part of Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area. Most of the rest of the state is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

For now, the timing for these storms looks to be late morning into the afternoon hours. The following simulation maps are from 11 am to 8 pm EDT. The first is the Enhanced Helicity Index which combines several parameters to show that the conditions could be favorable for the formation of severe storms.

 

 

This map is the Significant Tornado Parameter map. It shows where the conditions could be favorable for the formations of strong tornadoes. It shows the greatest threat for Kentucky to see a tornado or two is in western Kentucky.

 

 

This map is the NAM Ohio Valley simulated radar. It shows the rain as it progresses across Kentucky. It shows the rain diminishing in intensity but refiring by 8 pm EDT when the line of showers is around the I-75 corridor. For now, by that time it looks like the severe threat will have diminished but heavy rain will be possible.

 

 

I'm issuing a Level 1 Tornado Threat Index for western Kentucky.

 

 

 

Check back for updates

The Storm Prediction Center has curtailed the Marginal Risk Area for Kentucky. It is now mainly west of I-75. Parts of western Kentucky are still in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms.

 

 

For those in western Kentucky:

 

The severe thunderstorm threat continues eastward into southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky on Monday morning. Severe chances begin to decrease by late morning, but can`t be ruled out until the front makes passage during the afternoon hours. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or

two are the main threats. Heavy rainfall may also cause some localized flooding concerns.

 

The rest of Kentucky:

 

A cold front is forecast to push across the area this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front today through this evening. Some of the showers storms this afternoon and early this evening could be strong to severe with gusty winds being the main threat. Outside of thunderstorms winds may gust to 35 mph at times this afternoon.

 

I'm staying with a level 1 BGP Tornado Threat Index for western Kentucky. I will try and update later this morning. Everyone can follow any watches or warnings on BGP Twitter page.