Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gust area possible. The prefrontal environment likely will see seasonally high moisture including surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This destabilization will be sufficient to support the initiation of thunderstorm development. I will update later today.

 

A cold front will accompany a weakening upper trough through the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day, providing a focus for thunderstorm initiation. The environment will become supportive of a few locally strong to damaging wind gusts, and storms may eventually evolve into line segments or clusters before weakening. The Storm Prediction Center has a large portion of Kentucky in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. The is a section of northeastern Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms.

 

 

Those in the cat 2 Slight Risk area may see strong to severe storms redevelop later this afternoon after the initial thunderstorms. While the exact positioning of the possible storms is not known and storms could pop up anywhere in the areas mentioned above. I'm focusing on the section of Kentucky east of I-75 and north of I-64. These possible storms could produce damaging winds, hail. While the threat is very low I'm going to issue a level 1 BGP Tornado Threat Index.

 

I will be monitoring the situation throughout the day. If I receive any watches or warning I will send them out via our Twitter page.