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Category 1 Marginal Risk for Wednesday (6/12/19) (update)


nWo
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After a dry day today A few strong storms are possible across parts of Kentucky on Wednesday. Latest data suggest surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast Alabama into southeast Indiana. Showers and storms should easily develop by early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there is some concern that severe category may need to be raised to account for this increasing dynamic system.

 

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The following is the NAM 3km Ohio Valley Radar for Wednesday afternoon. It is from 2 pm EDT to 7 am EDT Thursday morning.

 

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I will be monitoring this situation throughout the day and post updates later.

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A weak low-pressure trough will develop during the day, extending roughly from Indiana into central Kentucky and middle Tennessee. As lift increases with the upper trough, a broken line of strong storms is expected to develop. Day time heating may be hindered by cloud cover. There is a marginal hail or damaging wind threat with the stronger storm clusters. The Marginal Risk Area has been expanded to include more of eastern Kentucky.

 

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I will update in the morning.

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There is still a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for portions of southeast Indiana, southern Ohio and a large portion of Kentucky for today. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible today. The threats look to be marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds.

 

Conditions should be favorable for thunderstorms to likely develop by late afternoon along and ahead of a boundary across central Kentucky into middle Tennessee in a weakly unstable environment. The HRRR Ohio Valley radar shows this. The timing for this radar simulation is from 4 pm to 11 pm EDT. I'm using it because it is an hourly radar. This means each frame is an hour in apart. Where the other ones are 3 hours apart.

 

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Be alert later this afternoon for possible storms in your area. Updates and I will send out as many warnings I can via our Twitter page as I can. If any are issued later today.

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