March 5, 20197 yr Strong to severe storms may be possible for parts of Kentucky late Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. The medium range models are in good agreement about the possibility of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon. The GFS is the most aggressive tough. The threats look to be damaging winds and the potential for tornadoes. I will be keeping a close eye on this situation and post updates when the information warrants it.
March 6, 20197 yr Author The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the area that could see storms on Saturday. Now almost the entire western half of Kentucky west of the I-65 corridor could see strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central and southern Plains early on Saturday, eastward/northeastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, the risk for at least isolated severe storms remains evident -- including the potential for damaging winds and some tornado risk. I will be keeping a close eye on this system and post updates as we get closer.
March 7, 20197 yr Author We are now in the range of the NAM model for this coming weekend. It shows that the conditions could be favorable for strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. For now, according to the SARS-Sounding Analog, the threats could be damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes a couple of which could be strong. I'm watching this closely and will be updating in the morning.
March 7, 20197 yr Author Parts of Kentucky west of I-65 are in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. East of that a portion of Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. This from the NAM shows the conditions will be favorable for the formations of storms that could produce damaging winds and a few tornadoes. It is from 1 pm Saturday to 1 am Sunday morning EST. Check back for updates later today.
March 8, 20197 yr Author The threat for strong to severe storms still exists for portions of western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has a Category 2 Slight Risk area covering sections of Kentucky from around I-65 back westward. A Category 1 Marginal Risk area is from around I-65 to I-75. Conditions could be variable for the formation of storms that could produce damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Check back later today for an update.
March 8, 20197 yr Author The severe weather threat has increased for those in western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level for western Kentucky west of the Land Between the Lakes to a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for strong to severe storms for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. From the Land Between the Lakes area to just east of Bowling Green is in a category 2 Slight Risk Area. East of that to almost I-75 is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for possible severe storms. Model guidance suggests that a round of convection will develop along a cold front during the afternoon. This convection could produce storms that have the potential for damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. All of the following maps are from 4 pm EST Saturday to 1 am EST Sunday morning. Radar is actually from the NAM 3km which is like a high definition model EHI(Energy Helicity Index) Supercell Significant tornado I'm going to wait until morning. More than likely I will go into a Severe Weather Threat Mode then. Have a blessed rest of your Friday.
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