4th Region Final Rankings and Postseason Preview (2-17-19)

Final Rankings and Postseason Preview

1) Bowling Green (22-5)

High Rank - 1, Low Rank - 2, Average Rank - 1

You wouldn’t know it from the rankings, but few teams in the region experienced as much turmoil as the Purples. Coming into the year, Bowling Green had five seniors on their roster. Entering the postseason, they have two. Two of the casualties were starters Trevor Dennis (10.6 PPG) and Davion Dice (6.7 PPG). They weren’t small losses. They were a very large part of a Purple team that started 15-2 and looked to be on their way to dominant favorite in the region, losing only to McCracken County and John Hardin (in overtime) at that point – both teams are ranked in the BluegrassPreps.com rankings and one is undefeated. They are still a very respectable 7-3 since that time, but it took them quite some time to figure out their offense again. They enter the postseason with two straight wins in which they averaged 88 points scored, albeit against teams in the bottom half of the region. Despite all the turmoil, they have lost only a single game in the region, falling to Warren Central 49-45 on the road in January. Their 14-1 record in region play is the best in the region, and one of only two teams that have lost less than four games in region play. With the departure of Dennis and Dice, they have become an extremely youth-oriented group. That group is led by Isaiah Mason, the team’s only player averaging in double digits at 15.3 PPG. That’s no surprise – the sophomore was listed as one of the preseason ten best players and has a sky high ceiling. A guard with great length, he is a pure shooter, hitting 45.3% from outside, shoots well in midrange, and is the team’s leading rebounder. The team needs him to be at his best to be at their best. Freshman Turner Buttry has been key in the back half of the season, and averages 7.1 PPG. He had 14, 12, and 13 in three key games in late January, wins over Warren Central, Allen County-Scottsville, and South Warren. The Purples have relied on phenomenal defense lately, suffocating teams with great size and length inside and dominating the glass. They have the #2 defense in the region, allowing just 54 PPG, and still have the top scoring average at 68. 26 PPG. They are more vulnerable than they might have been, but they still fit the bill of a favorite. They win this region if the youth performs well in the high pressure of postseason play. They do not have the luxury they are used to of a wealth of experience leading the youth – it’s a baptism by fire. They will open in the district semifinals with the winner of South Warren and homestanding Warren East. If they survive that to reach Diddle, recent history has shown that they are a near lock to make the finals – they have the last 11 times they reached the region tournament. They are 139-3 in the last decade against teams in the region that aren’t Warren Central. Right now we’re predicting them to win it all for the fifth time in six years, as well as their sixth straight district crown.

2) Greenwood (16-11)

High Rank - 2, Low Rank - 10, Average Rank - 7

I really struggled with where to rank the Gators in these final rankings. I’m not entirely certain that they really are the second best team in the region, but their recent run has been outstanding. They started the season in fifth, but started just 2-4, and were sitting at 8-11 in late January. Since then, they’ve reeled off eight wins in a row, which included five straight wins with margins of less than five points and two overtime games. That winning streak is their longest since the 2007/08 season. What is significant about that year? That’s the last year they won region. The main difference between the late season and early season was Jack Roberts. He was present early on, but broke his hand against Bowling Green in the season’s fourth game. He returned just prior to the winning streak, but is in full motion now. He has averaged 17 PPG in this streak, just a notch above his season average of 15.3 PPG. Ben Carroll was the man while they weather the absence of Roberts, and the big man was more than up to the task. A forward with range, Carroll averages 16.4 PPG, shooting better than 41% from outside and better than 50% from inside. He leads the team in rebounding and even shoots 74.5% from the foul line. He’s a matchup nightmare for most teams in the region, a strong scorer, and foreboding presence on defense. Isaac Stansbury and brother Noah Stansbury are shooting 42.7% and 37.9% from outside as well, giving the Gators a wealth of perimeter options. They’re averaging over 65 PPG in their current winning streak and their defense has typically been sound all season long. One of Greenwood’s strengths is also likely one of the worries about them. They have been so good lately in close games, but were just 1-4 in games decided by less than five points before the current run. They were run down by Bowling Green in a game Greenwood seemingly had won in early January. When the chips are down, do they have the finishing kick to get away from a team and not let it stay in that razor thin margin where anything can happen? I have to hedge on their prediction a bit. If they beat Warren Central in the district semifinals, this is a team that can make a run to win the region. They are well-coached, and fundamentally sound. Just two years ago, they beat Warren Central twice to reach the region tournament – can they do it again? It’s our prediction that no, they won’t. Ultimately when predicting, you have to lean to where the deeper talent is, and that was showcased in a 28-point Warren Central victory in January. But that is a game that can go either way. If it is close and Greenwood has the lead, given recent history, can you go against them?

3) Warren Central (16-10)

High Rank - 1, Low Rank - 3, Average Rank - 2

What a strange journey it has been with this team this year. They opened the season as preseason favorites and boy were they backing it up. Their first five games they topped 80 points in each and started 5-0. You can see by the record up there and do the simple math – they are 11-10 since. Some of that is schedule. Teams like LaRue County, John Hardin, and Bowling Green are understandable losses. 18 point loss to Pikeville? 24 point loss to Doss? Their first ever loss to South Warren? Those are much less understandable. Even more concerning has been a recent trend that has seen Central play outstanding ball against teams not from this region and then struggle against 4th Region competition. They own road wins over Owensboro, Taylor County, and Wayne County. They took down Collins in February at Warren Central. But they were swept by Allen County-Scottsville, their first losses to the Patriots in a decade. They blew a seven point lead entering the second quarter against Greenwood and never led in the entire second half. They have the second highest PPG in the region with 67 points on average, but failed to score over 60 in three of their last four games – all losses. On the positive side, their defense ranks fourth in the region as well, and the 66 they allowed to Allen County-Scottsville is the only one they gave up north of 60 in February, and one of just four games they have allowed over 60 in the last 17 games. No one doubts their talent. Dre Boyd and Kobe Brents made the second and third teams all-region respectively. Brents is their leading scorer with 14.7 PPG and has made nearly 100 three pointers. Dre Boyd is shooting 53% from inside the arc to average 13.2 PPG, adding 7.6 rebounds per game. Senior Tayshaun Bibb has posted several high double digit games lately and has upped his average to 8.4 PPG on the season – he is hitting nearly 60% of his shots. Central is similar to their teams this decade in that they love the three. If it is falling, they will bury you. But if not, it will fall almost entirely on Boyd and Bibb to carry the scoring. It’s a lot of pressure on their primary interior weapons. Like Bowling Green, the Dragons just want to get to Diddle and let it play out. They have made the finals 14 of their last 16 trips to the region tournament. Like most 14th District teams that make region, they are always heavily favored to go the distance if they get there. They split with district semifinal opponent Greenwood this season, with the road team winning each time. The loss to Greenwood in the district tournament two years ago will no doubt loom in coach William Unseld’s mind, though most of his team were not players in that game – the majority of the roster wasn’t even at the school. There is every reason to believe they can lose that game. If they get by it, our prediction is they make the region finals against Bowling Green. Of note – if they don’t win at least one title trophy this postseason, they’ll fail to hit 20 wins for the third time in four years.

4) Clinton County (21-7)

High Rank - 3, Low Rank - 5, Average Rank - 3

Clinton County has pretty much done everything that was expected of them this year. They carry the second best record in region play at 15-2. They swept their district with a perfect 8-0 record. They won the region’s All A tournament by an average of 15 PPG and fell against a very good Shelby Valley team in overtime of the state All A. They are 13-2 in their last 15 games, and they stayed between #3 and #5 in the ranks the entire season. Simply put, they are the team you’d expect to be most likely to make a run outside of the 14th District. A lot of that is owed to the presence of Jackson Harlan. Harlan is the region’s player of the year, averaging 24.3 PPG. He scores, then scores some more, then scores for good measure after that. And you can’t just key on him, as Seth Stockton is an able lieutenant, adding 14.2 PPG to complement Harlan. They are the region’s best 1-2 punch. But depth is a definite drawback for the Bulldogs, as you might expect when two players account for more than half of your team’s scoring. They are #6 in the region in scoring and #5 in the region in team defense. If there’s a major red flag for contender status, it is their 1-2 record against District 14. One of those losses can be waved away – their were blown out 73-48 by Greenwood in a game in which Harlan did not play. The other two games were against South Warren. One was at home in December, a 14 point Bulldog victory. The last was on the road in February, an 8 point loss. They did not play Warren Central or Bowling Green, and the whole team did not play Greenwood. Chances are, they will have to go through at least one of those teams if they are to win the region, and history suggests that they’ll have to go through two. Clinton County has not made a region final in 59 years – they are not used to being there. They are going to make region, and they are likely going to make it easily – they beat their opponent Cumberland County three times this season, and none were closer than 9 points – the last was by 20. What their hope would be in terms of a region draw depends on just what they want to do. If they want to make a real run at the title, then they should hope to draw District 14 first. Get one out of the way, and put a gap in between potential games against the two teams. If they want to advance, then given any other draw, they will be favorites to make the semis. Ultimately, that’s where we’ll split the difference in our prediction – district champions, region semis finish.

5) Logan County (22-6)

High Rank - 3, Low Rank - 6, Average Rank - 4

We knew coming into the year that Logan County was going to be good. I will not pretend that we knew they’d be this good. They not only have their first 20+ win season in seven years, they have their most wins since 1993. They need just two wins to have their most wins since 1984 – the year they won the state title. It’s been a rousing success by any measure for new head coach John Tinsley. The party got started early, as they raced out to a 15-2 record, with one of the losses coming in a very close 68-62 game against Bowling Green. They experienced a bit of a swoon as they went 3-4 over their next seven games, but closed out strong with four wins in a row. Their last loss was a 44-43 overtime affair at Greenwood, and as mentioned before, that’s the hottest team in the region right now, so it’s not exactly shameful. Their 27 point dismantling of Allen County-Scottsville on the road was particularly eye-popping. The Cougars carry the #1 scoring defense in the region into the postseason – they allow just under 53 PPG. Their average scoring margin is just over 11 PPG, trailing only Bowling Green in the region. Their rotation goes 8-9 deep, providing solid depth on par with most region teams. Kelby Epley, Third Bell, and Anthony Woodard are the names to know for the Cougars. Unlike Clinton County, they have played with the best the region has to offer in games against Greenwood and Bowling Green, nearly sweeping the Gators and taking that close loss to Bowling Green when the Purples were whole. They have allowed a few teams to get closer than they probably should, most notably in losses to Glasgow and Franklin-Simpson, as well as a narrow victory over Barren County. The biggest knock on the team is lack of experience. No one on the squad has played in a region tournament. No one on the team was alive the last time Logan County won a game at region (all the way back in 1998). They have shown a bit of a weakness with Franklin-Simpson. Last season they fell as the #1 seed against a poor Franklin team, and then split with them this year, falling by five on the road after winning by 15 in December. If they win their district, it is likely they will have to contend with the likes of Allen County-Scottsville (1-0), Monroe County (1-0), Russell County (1-0), or Metcalfe County. They’d likely be favored in any of those matchups, and again, have proven they can contend with the 14th. Going in as a district runner-up, that’s a different proposition entirely, as possible champions Bowling Green and Clinton County would be favored, and the current 15th District favorite Glasgow knocked off Logan County in January. Ultimately, we see Logan County winning the district and advancing to the semifinals should they avoid the 14th District in the first round.

6) Glasgow (19-10)

High Rank - 3, Low Rank - 7, Average Rank - 5

The Scotties didn’t quite work their way to twenty wins in the regular season, owing to the fact that they never had more than a four game winning streak during the year. Still, a lot of things have broken their way. First, they won the first Kentucky 2A Classic sectional to advance to the state round. They did that despite playing in a sectional with both Warren Central and Allen County-Scottsville, each of whom they fell to prior to that tournament. AC/S took down Central and Webster County cleared out AC/S just one day after Glasgow lost to the Patriots. Second, when they entered the final weeks at 2-2 in district play, they needed three things to happen to have a chance to get #1 in the district. They needed to beat Monroe County, then have Monroe County beat Allen-County Scottsville in Scottsville, then go to Scottsville themselves and beat the Patriots. Check, check, BIG CHECK in a 21 point blast. Then they need to win a head to head draw with Allen County. It broke their way again, and instead of playing Monroe County in the semifinals in Tompkinsville, they match up with rival Barren County who they beat twice during the season. Now, that’s not 100% rosy, as the Trojans lost the two games by a combined 7 points, so you never know. Still, better to take your chances with a team that didn’t already prove they could beat you. The Scotties are led by a trio of players that have put up double digit averages on the year. Nick Sorrell is chief among them. A first team all-region pick, Sorrell is averaging 19.3 PPG. He has gotten to the line for 213 attempts this year, hitting 70.4%. He is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game, giving him nearly a double-double each night. New addition Tucker Kirkpatrick is averaging 11.2 PPG, leading the team in three point makes with 58. Robert Kingery doesn’t have any time for the perimeter – his 11.1 PPG is all a result of the inside game, and he carries a 55% average from the field. Two more players average over 8 points per game, meaning that just like last year, Glasgow is one of the most balanced teams in the field. They were destined for a higher final rank before they fell at Franklin-Simpson on Thursday, the first major moment to give pause on the team since a loss to South Warren to open January. Still, this is a team that made the region tournament last season, pushing Warren Central heavily before falling by five. They’ve won 7 of 9 going in, and can reach Diddle if they can get their fourth straight win over Barren County. We predict they do, and go on to win the 15th District title. Like Logan County, their draw may determine how far they go. If they avoid the 14th District representatives, we like them for a semifinal exit.

7) Allen County-Scottsville (22-7)

High Rank - 2, Low Rank - 13, Average Rank - 6

What to make of the Patriots? First things first, what a job Brad Bonds has done in his first year at the helm. The former coach of the girls’ program is in his first year, and he just pushed them to their first 20+ win season since 2009, and their most wins since 2007. That alone would win him coach of the year in the region, which he did. Add to that the fact he is the fifth coach in five years for the program, and it becomes even more impressive. That fueled an oddly common among region teams 15-2 start, which included an overtime win at home over Warren Central, their first win over the Dragons in a decade. But again, simple math tells you things went a bit askew from there. The Patriots closed just 7-5, and some of those losses were hideous. 16 points to Webster County, 21 points to Glasgow, and finally 27 points to Logan County. They struggled mightily in wins over Edmonson County and Metcalfe County, beating the two by a combined three points. Just when you were thinking it was safe to write them off as having peaked, they rode into Warren Central and dealt the Dragons their first home loss of the year and got the season sweep. So who knows what to expect? The Patriots have done it largely thanks to the scoring effort of four players. Brett Rippy leads the team with 16.9 PPG, and is one of the best sharpshooters in the region, hitting 46.5% from three on 144 attempts. It’s not often you see a player attempt that many from three and hit nearly 57% of his shots from the field overall – he shoots 68.5% from inside the arc. We knew first team all-region selection Rippy would score a lot, but sophomore Mason Shirley has been possibly the more important player. A third team all-region selection, his 15.4 PPG came seemingly out of nowhere for outside observers, and there is no telling how high his ceiling will go. Both he and Rippy are money from the foul line, hitting 80.8% and 78.4% respectively. Owen Stamper (9.7 PPG) and Jax Cooper (9.2 PPG) round out the top scorers for a team that has the fifth highest PPG in the region at 65.5. The team shoots well, shoots free throws well, what’s not to like? While the margins were occasionally unimpressive, the Patriots do go into the postseason winners of four of five. They drew the short straw in their tie with Glasgow, and now they take on a Monroe County team that has gone toe to toe with Greenwood in the past week and knocked off the Pats on the road to start the spiral. It’s a game the Patriots should still win, but they are in real danger here. The team went 10/23 from three when they played at Monroe in January, and Rippy was a perfect 7/7 from the field. They’ll need those types of efforts again to get the W. Our prediction is they push past Monroe County, a vote for consistency, but fall to Glasgow, and then ultimately bow out in the first round of region.

8) South Warren (13-14)

High Rank - 8, Low Rank - 13, Average Rank - 11

Don’t let the record fool you – South Warren is a team that is on the rise in the region. They are 8-3 in their last 11 games, and those three losses came by a combined 16 points against Bowling Green, Greenwood, and Warren Central. Otherwise known as the top three teams in these ratings. They also own a win over Warren Central in that stretch, the first ever they took from the Dragons. They took down Clinton County as well, winning by 8 over the Bulldogs not even a week ago. The 101 points they scored on Hart County on February 9th is a program record, their first to hit the century mark. They knocked off Glasgow just prior to this 11 game stretch, doing so in Glasgow by 8. The Spartans are very dangerous under head coach Blane Embry, who returned to the male coaching ranks for the first time in 9 seasons. Tyler Martin was named to the second team all-region, and averages 17 PPG to lead the Spartans. Martin will shoot from anywhere, and if he is on, can end your season. Sophomore Jace Carver has emerged to give the Spartans a second strong scoring threat with 12.6 PPG, hitting better than 40% from three. He had a career-high 35 points in a near upset of Greenwood, the last loss the Spartans suffered before notching four straight wins to end the year. Freshman Caden Veltkamp has also emerged for nearly 9 PPG. The next great quarterback for the Spartans is the third leading three point shooter on the team with the best percentage of the three, hitting on 42.7% of his attempts. The Spartans rank in the bottom half of the region in scoring offense and defense, but do have a positive margin of victory despite the losing record. They open the district tournament in the 4/5 game with Warren East, who they swept on the year, most recently winning by 12 at home. They do have the disadvantage of playing that game on the road, as Warren East hosts the tournament. However, the Spartans are playing their best ball of the year, and Warren East has won just three times since December 27th. The real looming monster is Bowling Green if South Warren were to advance. That semifinal matchup would pit them against a Bowling Green team they have never beaten – they are 0-22 against the Purples. The last of those losses was one of the closet they’ve ever had against Bowling Green, falling 47-43 at BG in late January. Bowling Green is a young team, not playing at home, and will have had a week off by then, which can sometimes be counterproductive. If there were a year to do it, this appears to be that year. Our prediction is, this is not that year. They’ll make the district semifinals, but they’ll have to wait yet another year for their first region tournament appearance.

9) Franklin-Simpson (15-11)

High Rank - 8, Low Rank - 16, Average Rank - 10

Franklin-Simpson has had a lot more recent success than some of the other success stories above, but their turnaround this season is still a quite impressive surprise. In 2016 & 2017, the Wildcats combined for 50 wins. That dropped to 7 wins last year in a 7-23 campaign that saw them win just twice after January 1, and after an 0-3 start to this season, they had lost 17 of 19 games. But then the script flipped, and the Wildcats boast 11 wins in their last 15 games, gained a season sweep over Greenwood, and earned a share of the regular season district championship alongside Logan County, before settling into the #2 seed on the coin flip. They are favored to return to the region tournament for a fourth consecutive season, but they won’t upset their way in this time like last season. The Wildcats are also a year ahead of schedule – they don’t have a single senior on the team, not one. DeMarco Chatman leads the team with an average of 16.1 PPG and is the leading rebounder as well with 6.7 PPG. The junior guard was selected to the third team all-region. Sophomore Andreyous Miller is another bright player for the future, averaging 10.8 PPG. It must be said though that scoring is a problem for the Wildcats. They rank 16th in the region in scoring, averaging on 54.65 PPG. That is one stat that has not turned around from a year ago when they were similarly offensively challenged. They make up for it by allowing just 54.38 PPG. Defense wins championships, but that’s a razor thin margin. It’s why eleven of Franklin’s wins have come by single digits. It may not be comfortable, but it has been working for them. They open the postseason with Russellville, who they swept after falling to them twice a season ago. The second matchup was tight, won by just six points after a 25 point margin in the first game – the largest margin of the season for Franklin. The most encouraging thing about the first two games was Franklin’s scoring. The 69 points they scored in the second matchup was a season high, with the 66 in the first just behind. Franklin also comes in with strong momentum, winners of four of their last five, and grabbing a win over Glasgow last week. Our prediction is they knock off Russellville, fall short against Logan County, and exit in the first round of region.

10) Barren County (15-14)

High Rank - 7, Low Rank - 10, Average Rank - 8

The Trojans were the picture of average this season. Barren County never strayed more than two games above or below .500. If they won two straight, they’d lose two straight. They saw a three game winning streak end in blowout fashion against Clinton County last week – that three game winning streak had come on the heels of a three game losing streak. They have scored just five points more on the year than they allowed, ranking 12th in the region in scoring and 8th in defense. Even their region record was 9-10. They struggled to get wins in district play, posting a 1-5 record against the 15th district, though four of their losses were by a combined 12 points. Crucially, two of those close losses were against Glasgow, their opponent in the district semifinals. The Trojans were bested by their bitter rivals a season ago, and will be looking to flip the script from the 4 seed this year. Barren County is another youth movement team, this one with just two seniors. Instead, junior Will Bandy leads the team, averaging 16.1 PPG and 6.5 RPG. Bandy has a solid build, and plays primarily on the block, though like many Barren County bigs, he is not afraid to shoot from the perimeter, though he has hit only 26.6% of his 79 attempts from outside. Bandy was selected to the third-team all-region. A guy who will possibly be looked at as Barren’s next superstar is freshman Aden Nyekan. Nyekan is 6’3”, and is tough to handle inside. He’s hitting nearly 52% of his shots, averages 14.3 PPG, and pulls down 7.3 rebounds per game. He’s a foundational piece moving forward, and paired with Bandy, the two can really make some noise next year. Barren County is a team that relies heavily on production inside. They rate among one of the worst in the region for perimeter shooting, hitting on just 28.2% of their shots there. That makes it extremely difficult in games where they fall behind, so they have to stay in shouting distance of Glasgow. It is absolutely possible that the Trojans take the Scotties down on a neutral court, but ultimately, the prediction has to be in favor of the team with the season sweep. We predict Barren County ends its season at 15-15 – it feels almost like destiny that they finish at .500.

11) Monroe County (11-14)

High Rank - 5, Low Rank - 11, Average Rank - 9

If the team that played in the first two weeks of the season and the final two weeks of the season shows up, then Monroe poses some real danger to their opponents. They would probably prefer to pretend that December 20th-January 29th did not happen. The Falcons started the year 6-2. They played a modest 3-2 in February, but had a relatively close road loss at Clinton County and fell in overtime against the red-hot Greenwood team, plus knocking off district tournament opponent Allen County-Scottsville on the road. In between? That would be a 2-10 run that included a loss to Barren County that would ultimately cost them a shot at the #1 seed in district play. In that stretch, Monroe County’s only wins were by 1 point over South Warren, and an overtime win over Metcalfe County. Team defense has been a struggle for the Falcons. They rank 15th in points allowed in the district, giving up 2.4 points more than they score despite having the 4th highest scoring average in the region. They meet Allen County-Scottsville in the semifinals, who averaged 75.5 PPG against them in their two matchups. They allowed 70+ in nearly half of their games this year (12). They’ve got a shot if they can just reel that in. An all-region first team pick, senior Chandler Clements is a big reason for the gaudy scoring average in the positive column. He was our pick for #2 in the region entering the year and he has not disappointed. He averages 25.8 PPG and has a knack for getting to the foul line – he has hit nearly 200 free throws this season. His scoring region is tops in the region and #5 in the entire state. He’s #8 in the state for rebounding as well, averaging 11.2 per game. Grayson Rich has complemented him well, averaging over 12 PPG while doing his damage from outside where he hits nearly 38%. The Falcons lost two of their three district games at home this year, so homecourt advantage in the tournament may not seem to be a massive advantage, but they’ll hope to catch lightning in a bottle when they face the Patriots. Our prediction though is that they exit the postseason on Monday.

12) Warren East (11-17)

High Rank - 7, Low Rank - 13, Average Rank - 12

It’s been a very rough year for the Raiders. Like many seasons of late, East showed some promise in the early going. They won their Christmas tournament and started 8-4. There were surprising losses that look better in retrospect (South Warren, Franklin-Simpson, and Allen County-Scottsville), but for the most part, it looked like East would be a factor in the region. Then came illness, injuries, and games against teams that they rarely have success against. And so they crashed to a 3-13 record since that start, with all three wins coming against teams with losing records, including Caverna which has only a single win. The Raiders can be forgiven for playing in a brutal district where they ultimately went 0-8, but they have only lost by less than double digits twice during the run. Needless to say, they are not rolling going into district, and it does not look good for their chances to reach region for the first time since 1997. That’s despite having homecourt advantage, though they have lost in their first game of the last four times they’ve hosted the district tourney. The Raiders rank 13th and 11th in scoring offense and defense respectively. East shoots just under 44% of all attempts from the three point line, so if they can get hot, they’ve got a puncher’s chance. Adante Barber leads the team in scoring with 12.8 PPG, while four other players average between 7.8 and 8.8 PPG (Ryan Carter, Bryson Wallace, Thomas Maxey, and Kaleb Matlock). The Raiders will be looking for a game like the last they played against Warren Central, where they hit on 8 of 20 three pointers on their home floor. They open with South Warren, who defeated them by 2 at Warren East in December before getting the sweep with a 12 point win in February. That’s where we predict them to go out. If they should manage to get past that to the district semifinals, they’ll match up with Bowling Green. The Purples just beat East by 34 at Warren East, and have won 50 in a row against the Raiders. It’s hard to see any path to the regional tourney.

13) Metcalfe County (10-19)

High Rank - 13, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 15

The Hornets enter the postseason with ten wins. That is their first double digit win season since 2011. It is also equal to the win total they had in the last four seasons combined. Let’s put it one more way – the last five Hornet coaches that weren’t the legendary Tim McMurtrey failed to ever reach double digit wins in a season. This was a good year. In addition to the win total, the Hornets had near misses against the likes of Glasgow, Monroe County (overtime), and Allen County-Scottsville. They enter the 16th District tournament with the two seed, having secured their first win over Russell County in 11 years when they knocked off the Lakers at home 56-53 on January 29th. Boston Devore and Tyler London lead the team with 16 PPG and 13.7 PPG respectively, as the Hornets average a healthy 64 PPG average as a team. They will host the district tournament, where they are 4-7 this season. Their reward for beating Russell County is the proposition of doing it again. That’s a tall task as Russell County has yet to lose a district semifinal game since entering the region in the 2005/2006 season. But this appears to be finally the year for Metcalfe County to return to Diddle. They’re at home and the Lakers have struggled on the road. They get the win, fall to Clinton County in the finals, and then have their season come to a successful end in the region quarters.

14) Russell County (7-23)

High Rank - 13, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 14

The Lakers are just 3-14 in their last 17 games, and three of their wins on the season have come over Cumberland County, who went winless against 16th District teams. Russell County enters the postseason on a short positive note, knocking off Rockcastle County 63-58 to stop a nine game skid. The seven wins they have now equals their lowest total for a season in the last 20 years. In other words, it has been a tough season for Russell County. Their scoring attack rates as one of the worst in the region, as they score only 54.9 PPG while allowing 64.7 PPG. During their nine game losing streak, they topped that average only twice, scoring 59 against Jackson County (in overtime) and 61 against Marion County. Scott Hamm has provided an able presence inside, scoring 14 PPG while hitting nearly 55% of his shots from the field. When we say inside, we mean it – he has attempted zero three pointers. Briley Hadley has also chipped in 11.3 PPG. As mentioned in the Metcalfe preview, Russell County has never lost a district semifinal game as a member of the 16th District. Their region tournament appearance streak is a record 13 in a row. Of greatest concern for them is that they have won only a single true road game this year, beating Cumberland County 76-72 on January 4th. They are 1-10 at their opponents, and that includes a 56-53 loss to Metcalfe County. The combination of a low scoring offense, a road environment, and just general momentum points to a district semifinal loss at long last for a rebuilding Russell County team.

15) Cumberland County (6-22)

High Rank - 12, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 17

The Panthers entered the season on a 14 game losing streak, and the first half of the season did not go much better. Despite some close results such as losses of 7, 9, and 4 to 16th District opponents, Cumberland County started just 2-14. Things have improved in the back half, including a stretch of four wins in seven games, back to back wins over Russellville and Todd County Central, and a 90 point effort in an overtime loss to Metcalfe County that rated as the highest score for the program since December 2003. The Panthers have frequently been competitive, and their scoring rate of 66.7 PPG is good enough for third in the region. Unfortunately, they allow over 78 PPG, dead last by over 8 points. They have allowed 77 points or more in a staggering seven straight games. Three Panthers average in double digits, led by Dawson Smith’s 19.7 PPG. Joseph Johnson averages 11.7 PPG and Isaiah Dyer adds 10.9 per. If Cumberland County had the fortune of matching up against Metcalfe County or Russell County, it would be conceivable that they could advance to the regional tournament. But instead, they take on top seed Clinton County, who have bested them 25 straight times dating back to 2009. That 2009 victory came in the district tournament, the last time Cumberland County advanced to the region tournament. That won’t happen here. Clinton County gets the win, and ends Cumberland County’s season.

16) Russellville (8-16)

High Rank - 12, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 16

The Panthers have improved slightly from last season, but they are still well off the pace of 2017’s region runner-up. Like last season, the trouble has really kicked up following the start of the new year. While Russellville started 0-4, they entered the new year at 5-8, and were still 7-9 following a win at Caverna on January 8th. Since then, they are just 1-7, with only two of those losses coming by less than 10. It’s not without effort from Jacob Naylor. The senior was selected to the second team all-region, and his 25.2 PPG are tied for 8th in the state. He accounts for over 42% of his team’s total scoring. Add in Elijah Kemp’s solid 12.9 PPG average, and the two players account for over 64%. There’s just not enough depth from Russellville for a run. They did avenge an early season loss to Todd County Central with a 71-58 victory, which helped them avoid a potential matchup with Logan County in the district tournament. They will play Franklin-Simpson, who they fell to by just 6 at the start of February. Crazier things have happened, but our prediction is a swift exit in the semis.

17) Todd County Central (5-23)

High Rank - 9, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 13

Todd County Central had a phenomenal season last year, getting back to the region tournament, reaching the semifinals, and claiming their first district title in over a decade. They returned the best pure big man in the region in John Calvery, and the second team all-region selection is having a fine year with 17.4 PPG. But ultimately, the loss of leading scorer Nolan Barrow was too much for the Rebels. They enter the postseason on a 14 game losing streak, and one of their five wins was actually an administrative forfeit to open the year. During their losing streak they have topped 60 points only three times, and their 54 PPG average is the worst in the region. They meet Logan County, who knocked them off by 13 and 10 in their two matchups. The district is at Todd County Central, but this seems like a year where a lot of the district hosts are not in extremely favorable positions. It’s just hard to envision Todd Central making any noise. Our prediction is that they end their season at home against Logan County.

Top Players in the 4th Region

1. Jackson Harlan, G, Sr. (Clinton County) – Voted the POY by both the 4th Region coaches and the KABC, his scoring average is actually down to 24.3 PPG. That’s how much he can score.

2. Chandler Clements, F, Sr. (Monroe County) – Clements leads the 4th Region in scoring, and will be leaned on heavily if they are to have a chance to advance.

3. Isaiah Mason, G, So. (Bowling Green) – Lean and long, Mason will ascend to his birthright as best player in the region starting next year.

4. Ben Carroll, F, Jr. (Greenwood) – Carroll is a huge matchup advantage, playing both inside and outside, and has a high basketball IQ.

5. Brett Rippy, G, Sr. (Allen County-Scottsville) – Rippy averages a ridiculous 46.5% average from the three point line. If he’s open, you’ve made a terrible mistake.

6. Tyler Martin, G, Sr. (South Warren) – Martin recently became the all-time leading scorer at South Warren. He’ll need to be great to give them a shot at their first region tournament berth.

7. Jacob Naylor, G, Sr. (Russellville) – It’s unfortunate that Naylor has gone a bit unnoticed by some in the midst of a rough Russellville season. His 25.2 PPG are 8th in the state.

8. Kobe Brents, G, Jr. (Warren Central) – Brents has struggled to find his shot at moments this year, but has turned up his play of late to lead the Dragons in scoring. If his threes are falling, look out.

9. Jack Roberts, G, Sr. (Greenwood) – A broken hand early in the season blunted his progress, but the eighth year senior is playing well as he enters his final postseason, looking to duplicate the heroics of 2017.

10. Jon Calvery, C, Sr. (Todd County Central) – Calvery is easily the best post player in the region, enabling him to still average over 17.4 PPG despite struggles around him. He’s making 50.6% of his field goals on the year.