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Category 1 Marginal Risk of severe storms Wednesday


nWo
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There is a category 1 Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of Kentucky Wednesday into Thursday morning. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday afternoon, but should become more probable after dark. For now, these storms could produce strong gust winds and perhaps a tornado or two. This looks to be mainly west of I-65. I will be monitoring this situation.

 

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The chance for strong to severe storms has increased some this evening. I believe the Marginal Risk Area will be expanded to include more of Kentucky tomorrow. Also, I look for the Marginal Risk Area to be increased to a Category 2 Slight Risk Area for parts of western Kentucky. That is if the trend continues into the day on Wednesday.

 

The following is the EHI from the NAM model. It shows the atmospheric energy may be conducive to the development of these possible storms Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. This run is from Wednesday 1 pm EST to 5 am EST Thursday morning.

 

floop-nam-2019020518.ehi03.us_ov.gif

 

At this time it appears that the main threats will be damaging winds and the possible tornado or two. Especially in western Kentucky. I will update early tomorrow morning. I may go into a severe weather threat mode then. Especially if the severe threat increases.

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