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Too Early 1A Semifinal Predictions

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There is no cross district action in 1A. That makes it a straight forward matchup process with districts 1-4 in the west and 5-8 in the east.

 

Here are the 1A districts:

 

District 1 – Crittenden County, Fulton City, Russellville

District 2 – Bethlehem, Campbellsville, Caverna, Fort Knox

District 3 – Frankfort, Holy Cross (Louisville), Kentucky Country Day

District 4 – Beechwood, Bellevue, Dayton, Ludlow

District 5 – Berea, Bishop Brossart, Bracken County, Nicholas County, Paris

District 6 – Fairview, Paintsville, Raceland

District 7 – Harlan, Lynn Camp, Pineville, Williamsburg

District 8 – Hazard, Phelps, Pikeville, South Floyd

 

Let's take a look at how things are stacking up after 3 games for most teams. Rankings listed are from the most recent BluegrassPreps rankings.

 

REGION I

 

District 1 vs. District 2

 

Favorite: #8 Russellville

Top Contender: Crittenden County

 

The only team that appears to have any shot at all of preventing Russellville from being a semifinalist is Crittenden County. At this point, that looks like a huge upset if it were to happen. Russellville is as close to a sure thing as we have in Class 1A to reach the state semifinals.

 

REGION II

 

District 3 vs. District 4

 

Favorite: #1 Beechwood

Top Contender: #3 Kentucky Country Day

 

Kentucky Country Day is a team full of seniors and they are playing some very good football. People may not be aware of how good they are despite their #3 ranking. They have talent and experience and that is a dangerous combination. However, that being said, it is difficult seeing them beating Beechwood. The Tigers also have talent and they have many experienced starters back from last year's state champion team. There are some other solid, ranked teams in these two districts. District 3 is one of the best in the state with #7 Louisville Holy Cross and #9 Frankfort both good enough to upset Kentucky Country Day. Ludlow and Bellevue are looking solid in District 4. This region features a lot of good teams but at the end of the day, it looks like Beechwood defeating Kentucky Country Day to go to the semifinals.

 

REGION III

 

District 5 vs. District 6

 

Favorite: #4 Paintsville

Top Contender: #6 Raceland

 

Just like last year, this is probably the regional that is the toughest to pick. There are a lot of teams playing good football and three games in there is still a lot that could change. Nicholas County, Bracken County, Bishop Brossart, Fairview and Paris are all teams showing upset potential. But two familiar names are still at the top of the list as of now. Paintsville stumbled last week versus a tough Hurricane, WV team. This week they play Pikeville, which should give us some insight on both teams. The biggest threat to Paintsville for the regional title remains Raceland, but the quality of the Rams is still up in the air. The Rams play Greenup County this week so we will find out how good they are also. This region should be clearer after Friday night. For now, Paintsville looks like the pick.

 

REGION IV

 

District 7 vs. District 8

 

Favorite: #2 Hazard

Top Contender: #5 Williamsburg

 

Williamsburg might pose a threat. This week's game between Hazard and Somerset will help us figure this out, since Somerset will have played both Hazard and Williamsburg. Plus, #10 Pikeville is a team that is difficult to count out. No one else looks like a serious threat. Hazard returns a lot from a team that came very close to winning a title last year, plus they have perhaps the premier offensive threat in 1A in RB Corey Smith. Williamsburg might be able to get their high scoring offense going enough to upset Hazard in a shootout, but that would be an upset. Hazard is the team to beat in this region.

 

Semifinals

 

Beechwood at Russellville

 

Hazard at Paintsville

 

Who do you think can spring the upsets in 1A?

Impressive bit of research and analysis, VOR! Weighing in on Region II: at this snapshot in time Region II looks like maybe the toughest of the bunch(Four teams in the top 10 from this region and Ludlow on the cusp). But it's early, and the Frankfort/Williamsburg game this Friday plus the Holy Cross/Paris match up the following Friday figures to help sort out just how deep this region really is.

 

KCD is essentially the same team that played pretty even with Beechwood last year for a half in the region finals. Can they close the gap enough with basically every Bearcat starter returning?....Staying injury free and continuing to show more balance offensively will help....but if KCD doesn't pass more with the weapons at its disposal against Beechwood, it'll be the same result as last year. It does seem early on,though,that the ball's been in the air a fair bit more this year.

 

The key to making it a competitive regional final if KCD gets that far(remember how tough this region looks) is on defense. Look closely at the KCD/Lexington Christian game coming up at the end of the month. If LCA slaps KCD around and scores in bunches, it'll be a decent sign that Beechwood will score easily too. If KCD shows improvement defensively against a real juggernaut in LCA, then a Region II Final in Louisville might turn out to be a little suspenseful.

 

Lots to look forward to in the next three weeks....wishing everyone in this region and all the regions safe and fruitful Fridays ahead. And thanks to VOR for setting up the discussion.

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