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Weekend Severe Weather Outlook

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As I've mentioned in earlier threads I've been watching for the possibility of severe weather this coming weekend. As of this morning the threat has grown during the period I've been watching for Friday into Saturday. As a result of the modeling information the Storm Prediction Center has parts of Kentucky in an Enhanced Risk Area for strong to severe storms for late Friday afternoon into the evening hours. This area is mainly west of the I-65 corridor. This includes the city of Louisville. East of I-65 to a line from around Maysville down to around the London to Somerset area is in a Slight Risk Area. East of this line most of Kentucky is in a Marginal Risk Area.

 

The predicted ingredients are coming together that will support organized storms including supercells with large to very large hail and damaging wind the main threats. A few tornadoes may also occur with any surface-based storms developing closer to the warm front.

 

The timing is still a little unsure but this looks to be a event that will occur later in the day into the night time hours. I will post more info on the timing possibly this evening. This could be an overnight event so everyone should starting preparing today. My main areas of concern are WKY and along the Ohio River. The following modeling maps will show you why.

 

Once again I'll post more information later today.

 

KY_swody2.png

 

ehi.gif

 

supercell.gif

 

tornado.gif

 

dewpoint.gif

  • Author

Just got through reading the briefing slide sent to me by the NWS-Louisville office. First, on the possible severe storms on Friday. No real changes from this mornings outlook. Timing beginning Friday evening and continuing into early Saturday morning. The highest threat will be west of I-65, but chance for severe weather anywhere. Main threats look to be damaging winds, large hail, some up to golf ball size and heavy downpours. Very heavy rainfall possible at times this weekend 2-4" expected along and west of I-65, 1-2" generally east of I-65. These totals will be subject to change due to several potential scenarios that could happen with the frontal boundary, and rounds of storms along it.

 

The totals on the following map is through early next week.

 

p120i.gif

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