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Monday Severe Weather Outlook

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The Storm Prediction Center parts of Kentucky west of I-65 in a Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. East of I-65 to about the I-75 corridor is in a Marginal Risk Area for these possible storms. A relatively moist and unstable air mass will be present where scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop. The main risks of large hail. Stronger wind field in parts of western KY will also support the potential for bowing storms that will be capable or damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two as the storms across KY and southern IN during the evening. The main areas I'm seeing with the possiblities of seeing these tornadoes are western KY and in the Louisville/southern IN area.

 

I will update later today.

 

KY_swody2.png

 

Simulated radar from 5 pm to 5 am EDT

 

radar.gif

 

Tornado probability WKY 2 pm EDT

 

stp.us_ov2.png

 

Tornado probability Louisville/southern IN 5 pm EDT

 

stp.us_ov5.png

 

EHI around 5 pm EDT

ehi03.us_ovm 5pm.png

  • Author

Sunday evening update.

 

The models are in good agreement for the chance of strong to severe storms Monday afternoon. The main threats look to be damaging winds, hail and maybe a tornado or two. After Monday's possible storms we look to get a break until the end of the week. Then the chance for strong to severe storms ramp up again. I'll update again the morning.

  • Author

I'm issuing a Severe Alert Day mode for later today. I'll be back in a few with a forecast of the possible severe weather.

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