1A Notebook 9/20 - Matchup Games

Two of the top 5 in 1A took losses last week from teams in the very top tier in the state. Beechwood lost to Covington Catholic and dropped a couple places in the rankings as a result. Pikeville lost by an even wider margin to Belfry. Pikeville hung on to the #5 ranking despite the loss. It looks like the feeling in the ranking is the top 5 in 1A have separated themselves from the next 5.

Looking ahead to this week's games there are several matchups that are interesting. Everyone has their thoughts on how these key games will go. Since we are about halfway through the season, I thought it might be fun to see how the computer looks at these games. USA Today owns the Massey Score Predictor software. I have found it to have a good degree of accuracy. Let's plug in some key games this week and see what it says about these games.

In case anyone is interested, here is a link to their site: Score Predictor | USA Today High School Sports

#4 Beechwood at 2A #9 Holy Cross (Covington)

Analyzing this game, it looks like Beechwood's offense versus the Holy Cross defense. Beechwood has struggled against the good defensive teams they have faced. Holy Cross has played well defensively, except the game against Taft OH when they gave up 27 points. Beechwood's defense has played very well. That causes us to expect a low scoring game. Strength of schedule favors Beechwood significantly. The one team that Holy Cross played that is on a par with 3 of Beechwood's opponents is Taft, the team that beat Holy Cross. Lloyd is equal to Holy Cross and Beechwood beat Lloyd 12-0. Looking at all that, I would predict a final score of Beechwood 17 Holy Cross 14. Let's see what the score predictor says ... Beechwood 35 Holy Cross 21. OK, I am not buying that score at all.

#6 Nicholas County vs. Bishop Brossart

We have an early key district battle here. Nicholas County is undefeated and feeling very good after knocking off a solid 3A West Carter team last week. Brossart is 3-1 with their only loss to Aiken (OH) 56-14. Brossart is hanging their hopes on Aiken being a significantly better team than them or Nicholas County. Unfortunately for Brossart fans, calpreps.com has West Carter rated significantly better than Aiken. Both teams have played weak schedules, but Brossart's schedule is clearly weaker. I am going to predict a final score of Nicholas County 21 Brossart 7. And the score predictor says ... Nicholas County 26 Brossart 7.

#8 Fairview at 2A #7 Lexington Christian

Fairview has played a slightly tougher schedule but the Eagles are reported to have some key injuries. That makes it tough to handicap this one. Lexington Christian has piled up the points on its way to an undefeated record. LCA defeated the team one notch below Fairview in the BGP rnakings - Kentucky Country Day - 56-20. I am going to say same score in this one - LCA 56 Fairview 20. And the score predictor says ... Lexington Christian 41 Fairview 32. I think LCA wins by more than that.

#9 Kentucky Country Day at 3A Adair County

This is an intriguing matchup. The strength of schedules are virtually even but KCD's is skewed a little by the strength of playing Lexington Christian, who is much better than any opponent on either team's schedule to date. Three of Adair County's wins are over teams ranked a good amount above KCD's best win. Without knowing anything about the player matchups, I will predict Adair County 42 Kentucky Country Day 27. And the score predictor says ... Adair County 42 Kentucky Country Day 28. Whoa, right on target there. Let's see what happens in real life on Friday.

#10 Holy Cross (Louisville) at 5A Grant County

Holy Cross looks like a tough defensive team. Outside of the two highly ranked opponents they have lost to, the other games (all wins) have been by an average score of 15-9. That is old school football. Grant County has the same 3-2 record as Holy Cross but all three of the opponents Holy Cross has beaten are higher quality than the best win Grant County has. When Grant County faced a strong defensive team (Lloyd), they were held to 7 points. I will predict Holy Cross 21 Grant County 7. And the score predictor says ... Holy Cross 17 Grant County 14.

Those are our key games of the week!

1A Stat Leaders

Here is a link to the 1A stat leaders: 2