ON AN AVERAGE YEAR, in Class 1A, how many teams have a legitimate chance to win the title?

 

How many additional teams (not counting the legitimates) have an outside chance? By this I don't mean a Cinderella story team with a gnat's chance, I mean a decent team that is just below the level of the legitimate shot group that could win it with a few breaks.

 

I'm not looking for names, just numbers. And don't base your answer only on this year, consider maybe the last 10 years and give me numbers based on an average year.

 

I'll go first and say in this class...

 

Legitimates 6

Long Shots 10

Year in and year out you have 4, maybe 5 teams with legitimate shots at an A state title. It's just 4 of those are the same teams every year, and I do not see that changing anytime soon.

 

As far as teams having an "outside" chance of winning the A title, in the past few years I only see 1 or 2 teams that would have had a REAL outside chance. BUT, they can't beat the "Big Four" or beat two of them to either get the title or to the title game. I don't see that changing anytime soon either.

I would also say that around 5 teams have a legit shot, out of those I could narrow it down to 3 this year and they are there year in and year out.