article 11th Region Rankings (And District Predictions) for the week of February 22nd

[HoopDreamsCoachQ]

Brief Final Rankings before heading into postseason play. I’ll offer up my predictions for the district at the end.

Rankings

1. Dunbar (24-6, 15-2 in region) – It appears they rediscovered their killer instinct and throttled Scott County by 30 in Georgetown. Also beat West Jessamine by 30 before that. They are the favorite to represent the 11th at Rupp.

 

2. Henry Clay (25-5, 12-3 in region) – Closed out the year by winning 9 out of 10 and are peaking at the right time. Beat Lafayette and GRC last week and have a showdown with rival Bryan Station on Tuesday. I wouldn’t mind to see a rubber match between Clay and Dunbar with the winner punching their ticket to Rupp.

 

3. Scott County (26-4, 8-2 in region) – I’m sure Cardinal fans will be upset with them landing behind a Henry Clay team they have beaten twice already but Henry Clay is probably the hottest team in the state and the Cards lost their regular season finale to Dunbar by 30. They should advance past Sayre to set up a third game with Clay in the district title game.

 

4. Madison Central (18-11, 7-3 in region) – Wins over South Laurel and Lexington Catholic in double overtime and a narrow 2 point loss to 9th region favorite Covington Catholic make these Indians winners of 4 out of 5 heading into their district matchup with Model.

 

5a. Lexington Catholic (14-12, 8-5 in region) – These Knights lost by 3 in double overtime to Madison Central and by 1 at Wayne County but Lafayette isn’t exactly setting the world on fire down the stretch either so I took the easy way out and put them both at 5. They can decide it on the floor on Tuesday.

 

5b. Lafayette (18-9, 8-6 in region) – Lost 6 of their last 9 down the stretch and barely defeated Boyle County on Friday. These senior dominated Generals find themselves in a 1 game season on Tuesday night in what is probably the biggest game in Kentucky that evening.

 

7. Lexington Christian (17-12, 8-8 in region) – A win over Bryan Station will propel them into a district play in game with Tates Creek. Barring a massive upset, they’ll take on Dunbar. Dunbar has beaten them twice by 15 points and although LCA has won 5 out of 6 down the stretch and ride some momentum into the postseason.

 

8. Madison Southern (17-13, 6-5 in region) – Lost twice last week but get to play Berea this week in the first round of the district. I like their chances to advance to the regional.

 

9. Bryan Station (10-18, 5-12 in region) – Easily the biggest disappointment in the region, the Defenders took another loss in their season finale. They only way I can justify keeping them this high is that I think they have a puncher’s chance to upset Henry Clay. But, based on their regular season, Clay probably wins by 30.

 

10. Woodford County (13-15, 8-5) – The Yellow Jackets have dropped 5 in a row and are limping into postseason but I give them the edge over the teams below them based on overall body of work.

 

11. Franklin County (13-13, 8-5 in region) – Lost to Harrison County and beat Anderson County to end the regular season. A showdown with Frankfort looms for the chance to advance to the regional.

 

12. Frankfort (15-15, 9-5 in region) – Defeated Berea and Madison Southern to get to .500 on the season. The senior laden roster of the Panthers will play rival Franklin County for the chance to get to regional tournament.

 

13. Model (14-15, 3-4 in region) – Beat Jackson County by 9 to finish the regular season. They’ll need a great effort to keep Madison Central from advancing to region for the one millionth (approximately) consecutive year.

 

14. Tates Creek (6-21, 2-16 in region) – Winners 2 of their final 3 after a rough regular season, these Commodores suddenly have a tiny bit of momentum going into their district game against LCA. They’ll try to pull the upset over the Eagles.

 

15. Sayre (9-18, 2-8 in region) – Beat Western Hills and St. Francis to get to 9 wins before their district game at Scott County. If Sayre beats Scott County, it would be an upset of David vs Goliath proportions.

 

16. Western Hills (7-21, 2-10 in region) – losing to Sayre and Tates Creek back to back is about as close to rock bottom as you can get in the 11th. Except for Berea. The Wolverines face Woodford County in the first round of the district.

 

17. Berea (8-19, 0-8 in region) – Lost to Frankfort and Paris to end the year and will have to beat Madison Southern (who has beaten them 20+ twice this year) to extend their season and reach the regional tournament.

 

District Predictions

 

41st: (1) Woodford County v. (4) Western Hills – At one point I thought Western Hill could compete with anyone in the district but they have really stumbled down the stretch. Prediction: Woodford County by 14.

 

(2) Franklin County v. (3) Frankfort – Frankfort has underachieved and Franklin County has overachieved. I think Franklin County has the advantage on the sidelines but Frankfort has the better and more experienced players. Prediction: Frankfort by 4.

 

District Champion Prediction: Woodford County over Frankfort

 

42nd: (1) Scott County v. (4) Sayre – Unless Jake Duby can score 70, I’ll take Scott County. Prediction: Cardinals by 35.

 

(2) Henry Clay v. (3) Bryan Station – I think this is our best chance for a big upset but Henry Clay has been one of the best teams in the Commonwealth since the calendar turned to 2016. Prediction: Henry Clay by 18.

 

District Champion Prediction: Henry Clay over Scott County

 

43rd: (4) LCA v. (5) Tates Creek – I think Tates has been looking forward to the end of the season since late December. Prediction: LCA by 25.

 

(1) Dunbar v. LCA – Dunbar is the best team in the region according to most and LCA has been up and down all year, proven by their 8-8 record against region foes. Nate Valentine is an excellent in game coach but I don’t think he has the horses to compete yet. Prediction: Dunbar by 9.

 

(2) Lexington Catholic v. (3) Lafayette – Lafayette has stumbled down the stretch and Lex Cath is playing better of late. Lafayette is the better team but Lex Cath has the best player (Luke Johnson) in the game. Donovan Morris is the X-Factor here. If he shows up to play, Lex Cath wins. Prediction: Lex Cath by 4.

 

District Champion Prediction: Lexington Catholic over Dunbar in a big upset.

 

44th: Madison Southern v. Berea – Berea has lost to Southern by 20+ twice. I see no different result here. Prediction: Madison Southern by 32.

 

Madison Central v. Model – Model has had a great year but are victim to a bad draw here. They have already beaten Southern once and would have drilled Berea. However, the Indians have been to eleventy billion straight regional tournaments and I don’t see that streak ending.

 

District Champion Prediction: Madison Central over Madison Southern

 

Check back next week for postseason awards and recognition to go with a regional tournament preview!

[jblanton]

Henry Clay has just as many losses (3) as Scott County has in the new calendar year. Two of those losses were to Scott county. So I don't feel they are ahead of the Cardinals. Got to beat them to be ahead of them.