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Wednesday Severe Weather outlook 11/11/15

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I was just checking the weather for around midweek and noticed that there is a decent chance now for strong to severe thunderstorms during the day on Wednesday. At the moment, the area of concern is from I-65 back towards the west. If all of the ingredients come together we could see strong to severe storms develop along a front that looks to pass through Kentucky. Models are coming into agreement for now. If everything goes as predicted some could see supercell severe storm develop with possible tornadoes, hail and damaging winds. This will be watched closely. Stay aware of the weather as we get closer to Wednesday.

 

 

Day 5 severe weather outlook for Wednesday.

 

day5prob.gif

  • Author

Quick Sunday morning update on the timing of these possible storms. Right now it looks like this maybe a late Wednesday into Thursday severe weather event. I will update as the info comes in.

  • Author

Just checked the weather before I head to church. Looks like the severe threat is growing. Especially for WKY. Still looks like a Wednesday evening into Thursday event. The Storm Prediction Center may issue and Enhance Chance area if everything continues.

 

I'll post updates when I can.

 

day4prob.gif

  • Author

Monday morning update

 

As expected the SPC has now issued an Enhance Chance area for severe storms on Wednesday. This is for WKY west of a line from about Owensboro down to Hopkinsville. The Slight Risk area has now been extended eastward to included parts of Kentucky west of a line from Cincinnati southwestern to around Bowling Green. East of the Slight Risk area is now a marginal risk area that includes Maysville, Richmond, Berea, Somerset, Lexington, Winchester and Monticello.

 

If this trend continues through Tuesday I may go into severe weather threat mode then. I'll update later today when I can. Stay weather aware on Wednesday.

 

An Enhanced Risk area means:

 

Numerous severe storms are possible

more persistent and/or widespread, a few intense

a few tornadoes

several reports of wind damage

damaging hail, 1-2"

 

 

 

Slight Risk area means:

 

short-lived and/or not widespread, isolated or intense storms possible

one or two tornadoes

reports of strong winds/wind damage

hail 1", isolated 2" in diameter

 

day3otlk_0830.gif

  • Author

evening update:

 

The risk for severe weather looks to be limited to extreme WKY for tomorrow. This could be a November tornado outbreak for parts of the midwest. Also most of the strong storms look to be west of I-75. I'll post update in the morning.

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

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