DragonFire Posted March 3, 2014 Posted March 3, 2014 4th Region Preview When the season began, I noted that last year the 14th District’s run had nearly come to an end in the 2013 region finals, but Russell County had not been able to break through the glass ceiling. I said that consequently, Warren Central would be favored to take home their 10th title in 13 years. Despite Saturday’s loss to Bowling Green, that really hasn’t changed, although they are less a favorite now than they appeared to be entering the postseason. What also hasn’t changed is the notion that the 14th District runs the region. If it is someone other than Warren Central or Bowling Green cutting down the nets, it will be a surprise. The Favorites Warren Central (22-5) – The Dragons saw their 15 game win streak come to a crashing halt in a 68-53 nightmare loss to Bowling Green in the 14th District finals, but that’s about the only thing that has gone wrong for the Dragons in a long time. They carry a 13-1 record against region 4 opponents into the tournament, winning by an average of 14.5 PPG in those games. In their four games against opponents outside of the 14th District, that average jumps to 20 PPG, with only Barren County coming within 19 of the Dragons, an 84-81 win at Barren County in mid-January. If there’s one knock on the Dragons it’s that after running through most opponents during the season, it’s that they appear vulnerable and sluggish in the postseason thus far, needing a late steal to advance to the district finals before losing there. They had an 8 day layoff prior to their district semifinal game, and will now have a 7 day layoff before their region opener thanks to weather delays. They also drew arguably the toughest first round game they could have gotten in 22 win Clinton County. On the bright side, they would be easily favored in a region semifinal matchup with either Russellville or Monroe County and tournament host Barren County is safely on the other side. Bowling Green (24-6) – The aforementioned 68-53 win over Warren Central brought Bowling Green a district title after missing the region tournament the previous season, and also catapulted them into near-even favorite status with Warren Central. After all, while the Dragons had beaten Bowling Green twice, they were the only region opponent to defeat the Purples, and the BG boys have now proven that they are more than capable of winning against any team in the region. The Purples have found their groove by pairing big men Clay Stivers and Joseph Ayers in their starting lineup, creating a formidable interior presence that is causing defensive problems inside for their opponents. The Purples have also been greatly helped by the emergence of Tucker Sine as their go to scorer. Sine scored from everywhere on the floor against Central, dropping in 22 points with two threes, three scores inside the arc, and 10/12 shooting from the line. All of that is before you get to Nacarius Fant, easily one of the most athletic players in the region and with lightning quick hands, very tough to handle defensively. Bowling Green has a rock solid resume with several quality wins and no bad losses. They got the easiest first round matchup in drawing Franklin-Simpson, but will have a tougher go of it in the semifinal round against either Barren County or Russell County, especially if they have to face Barren County on their home floor. The Contender Clinton County (22-7) – You know the Bulldogs are tired of this by now. For the third straight year they’ve drawn a 20 win team right out of the gate. Twice now that has been their reward for winning their district and in both years they face the favorite for the region crown. But that’s the only thing not to like about Clinton County’s chances in their quest to win the region for the first time in 54 years. Outside of a rough showing in the Christmas tournaments, they’ve been nigh unstoppable. Only a head scratching loss to Monroe County in January (later avenged to the tune of a 35 point victory) and a road loss to BGP Top 20 team Wayne County has kept them from a perfect record in the 2014 calendar year. As with last year they are led by Keifer Dalton and Colby Langford, possibly the best 1-2 combo in the entire region. Dalton was recently voted region POY by the 4th Region coaches as a junior, and Langford has the feel of a sixth year senior. Both can score almost at will and will be a load to slow down. Stopping them both is likely entirely impossible. As was true of Warren Central in this incredible first round matchup, if Clinton County can slay the Dragons they will be easy favorites to advance to the region title game. That alone would be a first for the Bulldogs since they won in 1960. Tough Roads Barren County (21-8) – The Trojans were the beneficiary of one of the biggest boosts a team can get in January. The 4th Region tournament, held at E.A. Diddle Arena for all but five years since 1963 was awarded to Barren County, meaning the Trojans will get a chance to win it on their home floor. While they are not perfect on their home floor this season (an alarmingly pedestrian 4-5 record), it still doesn’t hurt to play on the floor and shoot at the rims that you are more comfortable on than any other team. Barren County finished strong after a midseason swoon, going 9-2 and bringing home their third straight District 15 championship. Their only losses were to Clinton County by 2 in double overtime, and their first round opponent Russell County 79-70. In regard to the latter, Barren County probably isn’t thrilled with their opening draw, and certainly can’t be happy with their draw in general. They received the second toughest opening round game they could have drawn and their reward for winning that would most likely be Bowling Green in the semis. Get past that, they’ll just have to defeat either Warren Central or Clinton County in the finals. They went 0-4 against Russell County, Bowling Green, Warren Central, and Clinton County, and three of those losses were at home. Russell County (18-9) – The Lakers have not been nearly as strong this season, clearly missing graduated senior POY Tyler Robertson. They were swept in three meetings with district foe Clinton County, dropped a road game against 15-15 South Warren, and just altogether had a season below their standards. For the most park, they’ve been on the uptick since late January. Aside from a strange loss to Adair (who they had already beaten by 23), the Lakers performed well in winning 7 of 9 heading into region play. They gained ground on Clinton County each time they played, turning a 13 point road loss in early January into just a 1 point loss on the road in the 16th District finals. The Lakers have 1st team all-region center Nick Coffey, a solid hulk in the middle that hits just about every shot he gets in the post. They feature the second best freshman in the region in transfer Kel Stotts, but the team may still be a year away from really challenging. The region draw doesn’t help, as they’re in the same boat as Barren County. Even if they duplicate their road win from mid-February against Barren County, they’ll have to deal with the same gauntlet of Bowling Green then Warren Central or Clinton County. It’s tough to imagine them cutting down the nets, but if there’s a coach who can do it, it’s Willie Feldhaus. The Dark Horse Monroe County (20-10) – And this is a REAL dark horse. Monroe County gained the #1 seed in the 15th district via tiebreaker, but the biggest win to bring that home seems miles away now. It was all the way back in mid-December when the Falcons knocked off Barren County on the road, four days before they added a second big win over Russell County, and three days before beating Glasgow. After that, they went 2-3 in 15th District play, had their best win of the year in a 61-57 win at Clinton County followed by their worst loss in a 35 point blowout at the hands of the Bulldogs, but stabilized enough to win four games in a row prior to falling in the 15th District final to Barren County. The Falcons are led by Dillon Geralds, a junior guard who averages in the high teens in scoring per game. They got a favorable first round draw with Russellville, the best they could have hoped for. A trip to the region semis seems likely, but not much beyond that seems hopeful. The Longshots Russellville (11-18) – Russellville set a 4th Region record with their 11th straight region tournament appearance, but the good news basically ends there. They’re one of only two teams in the field with a losing record, and the other came from their district. 7 of their 11 wins came over a 13th District lineup that did not have a single team finish above or anywhere near .500. They went 2-8 against 4th Region competition outside their district and 0-4 against teams that made the region field other than Franklin-Simpson. There’s just not enough experience on a team that has only two seniors after losing so much talent to graduation. They got a winnable first round game against Monroe County, but even there they won’t be favored. Anything more than that is not remotely likely. Franklin-Simpson (8-18) – After last year didn’t end well and this year didn’t start well, there wasn’t much positive to say about the Wildcats. Starting with their last 12 games of last year, they lost 23 of 27 games, starting 2013/14 with a record of 2-13. Things improved later on, and they strung together three straight wins before falling to Russellville in the 13th District final. Much of the heavy lifting in those wins was done by freshman Tavin Lovan. The future D1 prospect averaged 33 PPG in the wins, and gets to the line at will. But it would take a Herculean effort by him to lift Franklin-Simpson into competition with Bowling Green in their first round matchup. The Purples already pasted the Wildcats by 20 once this season, and a similar result is likely on Friday night.
DragonFire Posted March 3, 2014 Author Posted March 3, 2014 Tooting our horn a bit, 7 of the top 9 teams in our preseason preview made the region field as well as the top two from every single district in those preseason ranks.
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