Thanks. It might be a good breakdown, but my predictions are horrible.

 

Wouldn't say the predictions have been horrible. The Bell Co./Middlesboro, Jackson Co./North Laurel, and Pineville/Knox Central picks were all wrong, but you had those games being decided by a total of 8 points as well. Turns out, those were decided by a total of 14 points, so that's some consolation.

 

With as unpredictable as the 13th has been this year, I would say that all of those games were basically 50-50 ones (i.e., you could play them 10 times and each team would probably win 5). If you assume each was a 50/50 game, then the probability of picking all 3 correctly was only 12.5%. The probability of picking at least two of the three correctly (at random) were only 50%; (probability of picking exactly 2 of the 3 was only 37.5%).

Well that makes me feel a bit better

It will be interesting to see how Middlesboro beating Bell Co. affects the regional draw. IMO, Harlan County is the biggest loser in the grand scheme.

 

On one hand, you would think that Harlan Co. is more likely to go into the regional as a winner (and will get to play a loser in their first game, but regardless, this will be Clay Co./North Laurel, Corbin/South Laurel, or Barbourville/Knox Central). Of those teams, and without predicting who'll win/lose any of the other districts, I'm guessing that they'd most want a match-up with whomever comes out of the Barbourville/Knox Central district (but any of the rest are more of a crapshoot, plus, Barbourville/Knox Central isn't really far behind the field).

 

On the other hand, of the three teams that most would give the least chance to win the region (Barbourville, Knox Central, and Middlesboro), two must draw in the opposite bracket from Harlan Co.. This means that scenarios could occur where Harlan Co. could play three of the top four ranked teams (no matter who you rank in those top four, Harlan included). Just for the sake of illustration, assume that Clay Co., Corbin, and North Laurel are three of the top four ranks* (whether it be best teams or most likely to knock off Harlan Co).

 

*** These were chosen because they are the first three schools in the alphabet aside from Barbourville, Knox Central, and Middlesboro, and because two of the teams are in the same district, which would minimize the number of opportunities for the scenario to work).

 

In the scenarios listed below, ASSUMING: a.) Harlan is one of the four ranked teams, & b.) the other 3 ‘ranked’ teams won out → Harlan Co. would have to face all 3 in Scenarios 5 & 7.

 

In the scenarios listed below, ASSUMING: a.) Barbourville, Middlesboro, and Knox Central have the least chance of winning the region/upsetting Harlan Co., & b.) the other ‘ranked’ teams won out (i.e., teams with the least chance lose) → Harlan Co. does NOT face any of the 3 teams who have the least chance of winning the region in Scenarios 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, & 12.

 

Scenarios 1-4 are obviously most favorable to Harlan Co., but take a look at any of the other remaining teams ASSUMING that: a.) the aforementioned rules are still followed & b.) that South Laurel won their district.

 

South Laurel would have a favorable draw in Scenarios 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. Hence, because they have the additional possibility of playing the winner of the Middlesboro vs. Barbourville/Knox Central game in Round 2, and they have the additional possibility of meeting Middlesboro in Round 1, they would only have to play 3 of the top 4 teams under Scenarios 1, 3.

 

Keeping all past ASSUMPTIONS in place, EXCEPT now assuming that South Laurel loses their district, they would then have favorable draws in Scenarios 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8. This means that they would only have to play 3 of the top 4 teams under Scenarios 2, 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12.

 

Again, the point of choosing Clay Co., Corbin, North Laurel, & South Laurel where I did was arbitrary and was only based on their not being Harlan (had to use them to prove my point) or one of the teams that most would probably come to a consensus on being in the bottom half of the field based on chances to string together the three games needed to win it all. Each of the above scenarios is also the best/worse case odds (i.e., assuming that Clay Co. or North Laurel would win their district would alter the odds, and would be more favorable than assuming that South Laurel did so).

 

In summary, since Bell Co. was upset by Middlesboro, and thus, the chances of a team being upset before they got to Harlan Co., who could have only met Bell Co. in the finals, decreased, Harlan Co.’s chances of getting a favorable draw were significantly harmed. Scenarios 1-4 are obviously most favorable to Harlan, but any other team, for example, South Laurel, has ****.

 

 

 

ASSUMING THAT HARLAN CO. WINS THEIR DISTRICT, One of the following scenarios must occur:

 

 

 

SCENARIO 1:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 2:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 3:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 4:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 5:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 6:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

 

SCENARIO 7:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

 

SCENARIO 8:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 9:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

SCENARIO 10:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

 

 

SCENARIO 11:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

 

SCENARIO 12:

 

Harlan Co. (W)

Corbin/South Laurel (L)

 

Barbourville/Knox Central (W)

Clay Co./North Laurel (L)

 

Corbin/South Laurel (W)

Barbourville/Knox Central (L)

 

Clay Co./North Laurel (W)

Middlesboro (L)

 

 

 

**** If you are thinking this took a long time to create, it really didn’t. I found a similar tournament scenario online, then used the ‘find & replace’ feature to change the names of the teams before I cut and pasted my comments to the rest of the word doc. If you want to make a sheet of this for any region, all you have to do is make 1 assumption on who will win/lose a district, then find and replace the school’s names with names of teams from that region (numbering on the scenarios could be different according to the rules and assumptions you make though).

The above post might be the best ever.