Folks, my apologies for just now posting this and for not getting anything up since the day before the regional finals. Since I haven't done one from that time until now, I am including the regional final results, the state semifinal predictions and results, and the state final predictions.

 

I am also using the exact same Hensley Rating totals from the regional finals week for the final three rounds since I missed both the Cantral Rating and Lit Ratings from last week...I thought it was only fair to do it that way and not predict last weeks games based upon this weeks numbers.

 

You can see that the predictions for the region finals were not good at all, but the state semifinals was a perfect 12-for-12.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for every team still playing in ALL classes and the HRS predictions:

 

129.55 Trinity (Louisville)

115.85 Highlands

112.45 Bowling Green

110.60 St. Xavier

108.50 John Hardin

104.75 Covington Catholic

103.70 Scott County

103.25 Warren Central

98.60 Lexington Catholic

98.60 Boyle County

95.25 Butler

95.00 Bell County

94.15 Henderson County

94.00 Boone County

93.60 Central

92.50 Harlan County

91.25 Paducah Tilghman

90.95 Eastern

90.50 Beechwood

90.45 Newport Central Catholic

90.35 Mayfield

89.90 Franklin-Simpson

88.50 Conner

88.05 Glasgow

87.95 Jeffersontown

87.85 Holy Cross - Lou.

87.55 Collins

86.95 Anderson County

86.45 Belfry

86.05 Lafayette

85.40 Holy Cross - Cov.

84.90 Breathitt County

83.45 Lone Oak

83.40 Fort Campbell

82.50 Southwestern

82.10 Somerset

82.05 Owensboro Catholic

79.55 Hazard

71.45 Garrard County

70.00 Fairview

70.00 Murray

69.55 Western

69.40 Christian Academy - Lou.

66.10 Lexington Christian

64.95 Pikeville

58.65 Frankfort

57.60 Powell County

51.60 Williamsburg

 

Font color guide:

Red means incorrect winner picked

Black means correct winner picked

Blue means correct winner picked and within a seven points

Class 1A - Region Finals

Lou. Holy Cross at Mayfield - MHS by 8.5 (MHS by 44)

Beechwood at Frankfort - BHS by 25.85 (BHS by 32)

Hazard at Williamsburg - HHS by 21.95 (HHS by 28)

Pikeville at Fairview - FHS by 11.05 (PHS by 2)

 

Class 2A - Region Finals

Owensboro Catholic at Murray - OC by 6.05 (MHS by 3)

Christian Academy of Louisville at Glasgow - GHS by 24.65 (GHS by 21)

Cov. Holy Cross at Newport Central Catholic - NCC by 11.05 (HC by 3)

Lexington Christian at Somerset - SHS by 22 (SHS by 41)

 

Class 3A - Region Finals

Fort Campbell at Paducah Tilghman - PT by 13.85 (FC by 3)

Bell County at Central - CHS by 4.6 (CHS by 26)

Powell County at Garrard County - GC by 19.85 (GC by 32)

Belfry at Breathitt County - BC by 4.45 (Belfry by 14)

Class 4A - Region Finals

Franklin-Simpson at Lone Oak - F-S by 0.45 (F-S by 13)

Western at Collins - MLC by 24 (MLC by 1)

Boyle County at Lexington Catholic - LC by 6 (LC by 3)

Covington Catholic at Highlands - HHS by 17.1 (HHS by 35)

 

Class 5A - Region Finals

Warren Central at Bowling Green - BG by 15.2 (BG by 33)

Jeffersontown at John Hardin - JH by 26.55 (JH by 29)

Anderson County at Conner - CHS by 7.55 (AC by 1)

Harlan County at Southwestern - HC by 4 (SW by 7)

Class 6A - Region Finals

Butler at Henderson County - HC by 4.9 (BHS by 7)

St. Xavier v/s Trinity (at Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium) - T by 18.95 (T by 36)

Scott County at Eastern - SC by 6.75 (SC by 38)

Boone County at Lafayette - BC by 1.95 (BC by 21)

 

 

Class 1A - State Semifinals

Beechwood at Mayfield - MHS by 5.85 (MHS by 5)

Pikeville at Hazard - HHS by 20.6 (HHS by 22)

Class 2A - State Semifinals

Glasgow at Murray - GHS by 12.05 (GHS by 30)

Somerset at Cov. Holy Cross - HC by 9.3 (HC by 34)

 

Class 3A - State Semifinals

Central at Fort Campbell - CHS by 4.2 (CHS by 28)

Belfry at Garrard County - BHS by 9 (BHS by 7)

Class 4A - State Semifinals

Collins at Franklin-Simpson - F-S by 8.35 (F-S by 5)

Highlands at Lexington Catholic - HHS by 11.25 (HHS by 21)

 

Class 5A - State Semifinals

John Hardin at Bowling Green - BG by 9.95 (BG by 42)

Southwestern at Anderson County - AC by 12.45 (AC by 41)

 

Class 6A - State Semifinals

Trinity at Butler - T by 28.3 (T by 43)

Boone County at Scott County - SC by 15 (SC by SC by 2)

 

 

 

Class 1A - State Finals

Hazard v/s Mayfield - MHS by 10.8

 

Class 2A - State Finals

Cov. Holy Cross v/s Glasgow - GHS by 2.65

 

Class 3A - State Finals

Belfry v/s Central - CHS by 7.15

 

Class 4A - State Finals

Highlands v/s Franklin-Simpson - HHS by 25.95

 

Class 5A - State Finals

Anderson County v/s Bowling Green - BG by 25.5

 

Class 6A - State Finals

Scott County v/s Trinity - T by 25.85

Thank you for the hard work you put into this. Its great.