Okay ladies and gentlemen, it is once again that time of year for me to break out the Hensley Rating System for the Kentucky HS football playoffs.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantrall Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last few seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict, but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A and the HRS predictions:

 

 

Class 3A

93.05 Bell County

92.35 Central

90.00 Paducah Tilghman

88.25 Belfry

83.75 Fort Campbell

81.10 Breathitt County

76.00 Pike County Central

71.85 Edmonson County

67.75 Corbin

67.20 Garrard County

66.35 Monroe County

62.30 LaRue County

61.20 Wayne County

58.85 Trigg County

58.00 Russell

56.35 Bourbon County

53.80 Lawrence County

52.25 Powell County

50.70 Casey County

47.85 Morgan County

47.00 Lewis County

45.35 Western Hills

45.00 Henry County

44.85 Mason County

44.80 Sheldon Clark

39.45 Hart County

38.35 Fleming County

35.80 Heath

35.75 Estill County

35.30 South Warren

35.10 Elizabethtown

34.80 Bath County

33.80 Webster County

31.50 West Carter

29.05 Adair County

28.45 McCreary Central

24.80 East Carter

19.00 Magoffin County

16.70 East Ridge

14.15 Jackson County

7.45 Knott County Central

 

 

Region 1

Hart County (6-4) at Paducah Tilghman (8-2) - PT by 56.55

Trigg County (7-3) at Monroe County (5-5) - MC by 13.5

Heath (3-7) at Edmonson County (10-0) - EC by 42.05

South Warren (4-6) at Fort Campbell (6-4) - FC by 54.45

 

Region 2

Casey County (4-6) at Central (7-3) - CHS by 47.65

Henry County (2-8) at Corbin (6-4) - CHS by 28.75

Elizabethtown (0-10) at Bell County (9-1) - BC by 63.95

Wayne County (8-2) at LaRue County (6-4) - LC by 7.1

Region 3

West Carter (3-7) at Garrard County (9-1) - GC by 42.7

Western Hills (5-5) at Russell (6-4) - RHS by 18.65

Powell County (6-4) at Lewis County (8-2) - LC by 0.75

Fleming County (4-6) at Bourbon County (7-3) - BC by 24

 

Region 4

Sheldon Clark (1-9) at Breathitt County (10-0) - BC by 42.3

Magoffin County (3-7) at Pike County Central (7-2) - PCC by 63

Jackson County (1-9) at Belfry (9-1) - BHS by 80.1

Lawrence County (4-6) at Morgan County (8-2) - MC by 0.05

Thanks for posting!

 

I like Fort Campbell's odds.

 

Later.