Okay ladies and gentlemen, it is once again that time of year for me to break out the Hensley Rating System for the Kentucky HS football playoffs.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantrall Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last few seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict, but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 1A and the HRS predictions:

 

 

Class 1A

94.20 Beechwood

90.90 Mayfield

88.50 Holy Cross - Lou.

79.10 Hazard

70.45 Fairview

61.35 Pikeville

58.45 Raceland

57.65 Kentucky Country Day

57.50 Frankfort

50.40 Russellville

49.95 Campbellsville

48.85 Harlan

46.60 Williamsburg

43.55 Bellevue

43.35 Nicholas County

37.90 Eminence

31.50 Allen Central

23.30 Phelps

22.95 Fulton County

22.50 Ludlow

22.25 Pineville

21.00 Berea

20.90 Dayton

19.95 Bethlehem

19.85 South Floyd

17.25 Bracken County

14.85 Lynn Camp

14.45 Jenkins

13.45 Caverna

13.40 Paintsville

11.65 Fulton City

10.40 Paris

 

Region 1

Caverna (1-9) at Mayfield (10-0) - MHS by 83.45

Fulton County (2-8) at Kentucky Country Day (8-2) - KCD by 40.7

Fulton City (2-8) at Lou. Holy Cross (9-1) - HC by 83.85

Bethlehem (2-8) at Russellville (5-5) - RHS by 36.55

 

Region 2

Dayton (1-9) at Frankfort (5-5) - FHS by 36.6

Bracken County (6-4) at Bellevue (6-4) - BHS by 26.3

Paris (1-9) at Beechwood (9-1) - BHS by 89.8

Ludlow (2-8) at Eminence (9-1) - EHS by 21.4

 

Region 3

Jenkins (1-8) at Williamsburg (7-3) - WHS by 38.1

Berea (4-6) at Harlan (5-4) - HHS by 33.9

Lynn Camp (0-10) at Hazard (7-2) - HHS by 70.2

Pineville (4-6) at Campbellsville (6-4) - CHS by 33.7

Region 4

Phelps (4-6) at Fairview (10-0) - FHS by 53.2

Nicholas County (6-4) at Allen Central (6-4) - NC by 5.9

Paintsville (2-8) at Pikeville (8-2) - Pikeville by 54

South Floyd (3-6) at Raceland (5-5) - RHS by 38.6

I will take the under on the Beechwood, Mayfield, and Louisville Holy Cross games.