2015 State Champions: Ranking the Chances of Winning It Again

We will do this on a percentage scale

0%= No Chance

50%= Co-Favorite In Their Class

100%= Unanimous Favorite In Their Class.

Please note 100% is not saying a team has a 100% Chance of winning the title, it is just they are clear and away the team everyone else is chasing and losing the title to anyone will be viewed as a major upset.

It is also worth noting the percentages used in this study is not intended to add up to 100%. They are intended to stand on their own merit based off the criteria given above.

1A State Champion Pikeville= 45%

Losing a player the caliber of Daric Pugh is the kind of hit most 1A schools take two years to get over. An "All-Timer" kind of back, Pikeville has to fill a huge void where he leaves in their Offense. With that said, the Panthers have some excellent pieces including one of the better Junior QB's in Kentucky in Wyatt Battaile. Couple this with the fact this doesn't appear to be the strongest year 1A has seen and Pikeville is in that co-favorite range alongside Russellville.

2A State Champion Mayfield= 75%

Mayfield is locked and loaded with a team full of experience and big time players. Even if Mayfield had only returned their QB (L. Arnett), RB (T. Bright), and excellent LB (K. Arnett) they still would be the 2A pick most likely, let alone all the other guys they bring back. So what keeps the percentage from being higher? What Mayfield is missing is a known commodity at WR to catch Arnett's passes. It also must be noted that this should be a very solid year in 2A with several teams that can make you pay if you have an "off" night. Nonetheless, though seeing a team like CAL or DeSales beat Mayfield might not be a total shock, most will agree that Mayfield is in the catbird seat in 2016.

3A State Champion Belfry= 90%

When you win the Title with a running clock and your closest playoff game is a 4 TD margin, you have made a statement. When you return 8 starters each way off that team including 4 guys who have D-1 offers, well, you get 90% in this article. Belfry's biggest obstacle to the rare 4-peat will be their own doing or the unforeseen. If Belfry stays healthy it will be very tough for a 3A team to challenge, the closest shot will be Corbin perhaps in the Semi-Finals. Corbin is about the only 3A team with the returning experience to match and they did give Belfry a ballgame most of the night in that previously mentioned 42-14 loss.

4A State Champion South Warren= 70%

4A was no match whatsoever for the 2015 Spartans. The closest any 4A team would come was 27 points, and even in those games South Warren seemingly could have won by more had they wanted to press the gas. The Spartans return the majority of their headliner talents: QB Litten, RB Namvong, DT Lacey, WR Hayes to name a few. With that said, South Warren was anchored by a Defense that was practically impossible to move the ball against, and numerous stars have graduated. If there is one chink in the armor it is replacing guys like McElwain, Wilde, and Colton who seemingly helped the SW Offense as much as anyone by their dominating defensive play and ability to create turnovers. Class 4A should show marked improvement across the board, but South Warren appears to once again be the lead dog for sure.

Class 5A State Champion Bowling Green= 85%

Simply put, who is going to be able to beat them? Bowling Green may not have an "All-Time" type of team by their strict standards, but they will be very, very good. Class 5A simply lacks a team on paper capable of playing to the elite level the Purples will set in 2016. The names of programs is strong, but even Highlands and CovCath have blaring deficiencies that need to be addressed. Armed with MR. Football candidate Jamale Carothers and a host of other key playmakers, expect Bowling Green to simply over power most teams that get in their way.

Class 6A State Champion Male= 35%

The 2015 Male team was one of the better teams to come out of Kentucky in recent years as the Male program has righted their seat among the Bluegrass State's elite. The 2016 season though is a giant blaring question mark as the Bulldogs must replace nearly all of their Starters. The level Coach Wolfe has brought Male back to, it is pretty easy to establish them as a contender every season until proven otherwise, but at the same time when you still have Trinity and St.X lurking in your backyard all it takes is one weakness to be beat. Male should have enough talent on the 2 Deep to play and beat anyone in the State, but until toe meets leather in August it is hard to label them as the favorite knowing all they lost.