OK. We've seen Conner, in suburban Boone County, come out of nowhere and win their district after winning exactly ZERO games all season long (in 12 tries) against region opponents.

 

We've seen Louisville Moore step up and beat Fern Creek in their district final after losing by 32 points to the Creekers at home in the regular season. They lost their last four games going into district by an average of 15 points, most of that coming in a 34-point drubbing by J'town.

 

In the 24th, North Bullitt knocked off Fairdale in the district semis after losing to the Bulldogs by 19 in the regular season. A mild upset.

 

In the 43rd, Dunbar dropped decisions by 32 and 12 to Lafayette, but still beat the Generals by 15 in the semis. Huge upset.

 

In these examples, were are talking about big-time surprises. But the bigger factor is this: Nowhere else in the state does this happen. Only in our urban/suburban areas (6th, 7th, 9th, 11th regions primarily, but sometimes in the Bowling Green, E-town, Owensboro districts as well). In the rest of the state, the favorite almost always, without fail, wins. And usually that win is by 20+ points, with not even a scare from the underdogs.

 

My question is why? Why do these off-the-wall upsets occur when past experience dictates that no such thing could happen? And why does it happen where it does, when it's a "no-way, no-how" prospect elsewhere?

To me the talent in the urban/suburban areas has more parity. In the Louisville and Lexington area every team has great athletesand ball players, some more than others but every school has them. For example, Moore against Fern Creek. I've seen both play this year and both have very athletic teams. Fern Creek, I think has better coaching which helps them more. But on any given night a team with the athleticsm as Moore can win, and it happened last night. When you get out into the rural areas the population is lower, therefore the students are lower. So they don't have the crop that the Louisville/Lexington teams have. So usually there is one team that is superior to the others, and all the good athletes wanna go there because they have a better chance of winning. Bottom line is there are more schools and more students in the urban/suburban areas than the rural, which means there are more athletes spread throughout the many schools, which gives them more parity.